# Center for Western Balkans Studies


## Posts

- [The Savičić and Ristić Cases Test the Institutions of Bosnia and Herzegovina – Nino Bilajac](https://cfwbs.org/the-savicic-and-ristic-cases-test-the-institutions-of-bosnia-and-herzegovina-nino-bilajac/): Detektor’s analysis of the cases of Davor Savičić and Dario Ristić shows that Bosnia and Herzegovina faces not only the problem of its citizens joining Russia’s side in the war in Ukraine, but also the challenge of how to respond if they return or face prosecution. So far, there are no clear answers. While tracing the paths of Bosnian citizens on the Ukrainian battlefield, two cases stood out as more than individual biographies. Davor Savičić from Doboj, known by the codename “Volk”, is suspected in Ukraine of war crimes. Dario Ristić from Modriča, after joining Russia’s side in the war,…
- [Western Balkans Overview June 12, 2026 – CWBS](https://cfwbs.org/western-balkans-overview-june-12-2026-cwbs/): In response to a question from the host of Radio Belgrade 1 as to whether he plans to resign within the next three to four months, Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić replied that he might do so “perhaps even sooner.” The president emphasized that it would be a resignation rather than a shortening of his mandate. “I am not going to tell people that I shortened my mandate, I am going to say that I resigned,” Vučić said. To confirm his intentions, he stated that he had already “started packing books” in his office. In the event of Vučić’s resignation, according…
- [“The Tivat Deployment,” a Hungry Vučić, and Montenegro’s European Integration](https://cfwbs.org/the-tivat-deployment-a-hungry-vucic-and-montenegros-european-integration/): In Montenegro, the EU–Western Balkans Summit in Tivat was assessed as unquestionably successful not only from a political standpoint, but also in terms of the demonstrated ability to cope with hybrid threats. Although a whole range of issues important for EU enlargement and the region’s European integration were discussed at the meeting in Montenegro, the controversial charter flight carrying Vučić supporters overshadowed the important political discussions. “Leteći Ćacilend” On 3 June 2026, Montenegrin police detained a charter flight from Belgrade on the runway of Tivat Airport. There were about 90 Serbian citizens on board. Not a single one of them…
- [The Illusion of “28 by 28” — Danilo Kalezic](https://cfwbs.org/the-illusion-of-28-by-28-danilo-kalezic/): In a display of optimism, the Montenegrin government decided to paint the national flag carrier with the slogan “28 by 28,” signaling its determination to join the European Union by 2028. Yet the country’s European path has proven far more turbulent than expected. Despite encouraging messages from Brussels and several EU member states, the accession process is moving more slowly than official narratives suggest. Contrary to earlier announcements, no intergovernmental conference and no closure of negotiation chapters took place in May — a symbolic setback during the month in which Montenegro marks the twentieth anniversary of its independence. The absence…
- [Western Balkans Overview June 04, 2026 – CWBS](https://cfwbs.org/western-balkans-overview-june-04-2026-cwbs/): Against the backdrop of Montenegro’s preparations to host the EU–Western Balkans Summit on 5 June in Tivat, a dispute erupted between Montenegro and Serbia over security issues. On the morning of 3 June, a charter flight operated by Air Serbia from Belgrade landed at Tivat Airport, carrying an organized group of 87 men, citizens of Serbia. After inspection, a joint team of border police and the National Security Agency (ANB) determined that the arrival of this group constituted a direct threat to national security, with a high risk of destabilizing public order during the international summit. In Montenegrin media, the…
- [Elections as an unblocking mechanism or a reproduction of the political crisis in Kosovo? – Orhan M. Çeku](https://cfwbs.org/elections-as-an-unblocking-mechanism-or-a-reproduction-of-the-political-crisis-in-kosovo-orhan-m-ceku/): 1. Introduction The Central Election Commission of the Republic of Kosovo faces a short deadline to organize new early parliamentary elections, which mark the third electoral cycle within a period of approximately one and a half years. The early elections, which will be organized on April 7, came as a result of the political crisis over the election of the President of the Republic. Political parties in the Assembly of Kosovo failed to reach a political consensus on the appropriate name to be elected President of the country. In the absence of a sufficient quorum of 2/3 (80) of the…
- [Western Balkans Overview May 25, 2026 – CWBS](https://cfwbs.org/western-balkans-overview-may-25-2026-cwbs/): Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić paid an official visit to Beijing at the invitation of Chinese President Xi Jinping. The central event of the summit was the talks between the leaders at the Great Hall of the People, which lasted a total of 4 hours and 15 minutes. In addition to customary protocol events, Beijing demonstrated the special status of bilateral relations — Vučić was awarded the Order of Friendship (the PRC’s highest state award for foreigners). In addition, during the visit of the Serbian delegation to the Great Wall of China, the traditional Serbian dance “kolo” was performed. During the…
- [The Dayton Black Hole – Vitaliy Portnikov](https://cfwbs.org/the-dayton-black-hole-vitaliy-portnikov/): The High Representative of the international community in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Christian Schmidt, was forced to unexpectedly leave his seat after five years of crisis management — under conditions in which his activities were effectively blocked by two permanent members of the UN Security Council: Russia and China. Unlike his predecessors, Schmidt was never approved in his position by the UN Security Council, which allowed Russian and Chinese diplomats, as well as the leadership of Republika Srpska, not to recognize his authority and to question the legitimacy of the High Representative — although they still could not ignore his decisions.…
- [Students, Kosovo, and memorandums – Boris Varga](https://cfwbs.org/students-kosovo-and-memorandums-boris-varga/): Is there willingness in Serbia to turn a blind eye and swallow the frog of populism for the sake of defeating the autocratic and criminalized regime? The students in blockade published a memorandum in which they explicitly stated that Kosovo and Metohija are an integral part of the Republic of Serbia. Among the rare political positions that the students publicly express on social media, the memorandum stated that “this fact is not only a constitutional category, but also a historical and moral imperative that is not subject to negotiations on its essence,” and that the “preservation of Serbia’s constitutional order…
- [New U.S. Policy in the Western Balkans: Focus on Energy](https://cfwbs.org/new-u-s-policy-in-the-western-balkans-focus-on-energy/): Energy is increasingly becoming one of the main instruments of geopolitical influence in the Western Balkans. For the United States, strengthening its presence in this sector means not only economic expansion, but also an attempt to reduce the region’s dependence on Russian energy resources, limit Moscow’s political influence, and strengthen its own strategic positions in Southeast Europe. Throughout 2026, Washington has already taken a number of steps indicating the systemic nature of this policy: from supporting new infrastructure projects to promoting American liquefied natural gas on regional markets. At the same time, the practical implementation of these plans is facing…
- [Western Balkans Overview May 18, 2026 – CWBS](https://cfwbs.org/western-balkans-overview-may-18-2026-cwbs/): The first joint military exercises of Serbia and NATO (NSE26) are being held at the “South” military base and at the “Borovac” training ground near Bujanovac. The exercises involve servicemen of the Serbian Armed Forces and six NATO countries: Italy, Romania, Turkey, as well as France, Montenegro, and the United States. The first phase of the exercises lasted from May 13 to 17 and included tactical training activities in support of real peacekeeping operations. The second phase, from May 18 to 22, envisages practicing the scenario of a fictional peace support operation. NSE26 are the first joint military exercises of…
- [Twenty Years Since Motnenegrin Independence Referendum. Montenegro moved on. Serbia hasn't  – Ljubomir Filipović](https://cfwbs.org/twenty-years-since-motnenegrin-independence-referendum-montenegro-moved-on-serbia-hasnt-ljubomir-filipovic/): On May 21st, Montenegro will celebrate twenty years of independence. There will be flags, speeches, and Ricky Martin in concert. Yes, the nationalist decor will dominate, but there is also a touch of civic pride that comes naturally to a country that has spent two chaotic decades building institutions, joining NATO, and emerging as a potential newest member of the EU. It will be, by most measures, an ordinary anniversary for just another sovereign state. Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić made sure it did not stay ordinary for long. Vučić declined his invitation to attend. He called the celebration a commemoration of separation…
- [Chinese foothold](https://cfwbs.org/chinese-foothold/): President of Serbia Aleksandar Vučić announced a mid-May visit to China. “In my professional life, this will certainly be the most important visit for the sake of the citizens of Serbia,” he stated. Vučić’s statement demonstrates that, despite the recent complications in China’s relations with the European Union, the Chinese direction of foreign policy continues to remain a priority for Serbia. However, partnership relations with Beijing are important not only for Belgrade, but also for Podgorica, Skopje, Banja Luka… Against the backdrop of intensified efforts by the European Union to reduce Chinese influence, the significance of Beijing’s presence in the…
- [Western Balkans Overview May 11, 2026 – CWBS](https://cfwbs.org/western-balkans-overview-may-11-2026-cwbs/): The High Representative in Bosnia and Herzegovina, German diplomat Christian Schmidt, has resigned after almost five years in office. He has already informed the Peace Implementation Council Steering Board (PIC SB) of his intention and requested that the procedure for selecting a new High Representative be initiated. Schmidt will continue to perform all regular duties in full until the process of appointing his successor is completed. The Office of the High Representative (OHR) has existed since the end of the war in Bosnia and Herzegovina. Its role is to oversee the post-war order and ensure compliance with the Dayton Peace…
- [Schmidt Has Fallen — Washington and Banja Luka Have Finished the Job! — Dragan Bursać](https://cfwbs.org/schmidt-has-fallen-washington-and-banja-luka-have-finished-the-job-dragan-bursac/): Introduction: “When a High Representative can be removed by an agreement between Washington and Banja Luka, bypassing Sarajevo, then it is clear how thin the real sovereignty of this country is. And how low Bosnia and Herzegovina is today on the West’s list of priorities.” Christian Schmidt is leaving quietly. Without fanfare, without grand farewell speeches, without the theatrical international seriousness with which he was welcomed when he came to Bosnia and Herzegovina as a “saviour of stability.” And it is precisely in that silence that the most important political message of today’s Bosnia and Herzegovina is hidden: the West…
- [China’s Quiet Conquest of the Western Balkans — Danilo Kalezic](https://cfwbs.org/chinas-quiet-conquest-of-the-western-balkans-danilo-kalezic/): Foreign media and academic analysis have long been preoccupied with studying Russian interference in the Western Balkans—its disinformation campaigns, political meddling, and security footprint — while largely neglecting a quieter, more structural challenge: China’s expanding influence across the region. This imbalance has produced a distorted understanding of external power competition. While Russia disrupts, China embeds. And in doing so, Beijing is reshaping the political economy of the Western Balkans in ways that are less visible, but potentially more enduring. Nowhere is this dynamic clearer than in Montenegro, a small NATO member whose institutional vulnerabilities and development needs have made it…
- [Gradual EU enlargement: to be or not to be?](https://cfwbs.org/gradual-eu-enlargement-to-be-or-not-to-be/): Since the beginning of 2026, the Member States of the European Union and EU institutions are actively discussing possible changes to the process of accession to the bloc, in view of current geopolitical challenges, disputes within the EU, and the stagnation of the enlargement process. On the one hand, the experience of “Orbán’s” Hungary is forcing the European Union to treat accession candidates more strictly, because, according to European Commissioner for Enlargement Marta Kos, the EU does not need new “Trojan horses.” “We need an insurance policy against backward steps,” Kos stated in February, adding that “the next accession treaties…
- [Western Balkans Overview May 03, 2026 – CWBS](https://cfwbs.org/western-balkans-overview-may-05-2026-cwbs/): The European Union has suspended financial tranches for Serbia within the Growth Plan for the Western Balkans. This was stated by the European Commissioner for Enlargement Marta Kos. The reason for this step was regression in Serbia’s judicial system due to the adoption at the beginning of the year of a package of normative acts known as the “Mrdić laws”. In January, Serbia adopted a judicial reform that caused sharp criticism both inside the country and at the international level. These changes grant court presidents significantly greater powers over ordinary judges and effectively abolish guarantees of independence for prosecutors. Critics…
- [Western Balkans Overview Apr 24, 2026 – CWBS](https://cfwbs.org/western-balkans-overview-apr-254-2026-cwbs/): The Basic Court in Pristina delivered a first instance verdict in the “Banjska” case, sentencing two defendants — Blagoje Spasojević and Vladimir Tolić — to life imprisonment, and Dušan Maksimović to 30 years of imprisonment. Spasojević, Tolić, and Maksimović are accused of a crime against the constitutional order and security of the Republic of Kosovo. “With the help of a well-organized plan, they attempted to separate the northern part of the territory of Kosovo and annex it to Serbia,” the judge stated while announcing the verdict. The “Banjska” case concerns an armed clash between a group of Serbs and the…
- [Kosovo Back in Political Circulation: How Moscow and Belgrade Are Synchronously Heating Up an Old Conflict](https://cfwbs.org/kosovo-back-in-political-circulation-how-moscow-and-belgrade-are-synchronously-heating-up-an-old-conflict/): In the second half of April 2026, the issue of Kosovo — the former Serbian autonomous province that declared independence on 17 February 2008, and one of the potential flashpoints of the Western Balkans — returned once again to the focus of regional politics. This time not only as diplomatic déjà vu, but also as an instrument for several political tasks at once. Behind the new wave of escalation customarily stand Belgrade and Moscow, as well as their allies in several countries of the region. In particular, a statement by one of the leaders of the Serbs of Montenegro —…
- [Cancellation of the Brdo–Brijuni Summit as a breakdown in regional communication](https://cfwbs.org/cancellation-of-the-brdo-brijuni-summit-as-a-breakdown-in-regional-communication/): The cancellation of this year’s Brdo–Brijuni Summit by the President of Croatia, Zoran Milanović, shocked many, first and foremost in the region. This is something more than just another diplomatic episode in the chronically tense Croatian–Serbian relations. The very fact itself is quite telling: one of the few stable regional formats, created precisely to maintain political dialogue even during periods of conflict, this time did not withstand the escalation. On 30 March, the Office of the President of Croatia officially announced that the meeting of heads of state within the framework of the Brdo–Brijuni Process, planned for May in Croatia,…
- [The End of Orbán’s Autocracy, Vučić Should Brace Himself – Boris Varga](https://cfwbs.org/the-end-of-orbans-autocracy-vucic-should-brace-himself-boris-varga/): Serbia does not know where it wants to be, and this is already an inherited generational problem The victory of Peter Magyar and his party Tisza in the parliamentary elections in Hungary was celebrated the most in neighboring Serbia. First, because the defeated prime minister Viktor Orbán is a friend and protector of the Serbian president Aleksandar Vučić. And second, even more importantly — because it demonstrated in practice how an autocrat, after many years in power, can be defeated through elections. In these sincere congratulations from Serbia, there are excessive hopes and unrealistic expectations, but this is understandable because…
- [Western Balkans Overview Apr 16, 2026 – CWBS](https://cfwbs.org/western-balkans-overview-apr-16-2026-cwbs/): On 15 April, the House of Peoples of the Parliament of the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, at an extraordinary session, adopted key amendments to the law on the Southern Interconnection (gas interconnection) of Bosnia and Herzegovina and the Republic of Croatia. It concerns a gas pipeline that will connect Bosnia and Herzegovina with the Croatian gas network and the liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminal on the island of Krk in Croatia, which will make it possible to diversify sources of gas supply, eliminating dependence on supplies from Russia. At present, Bosnia and Herzegovina receives exclusively Russian gas, which arrives…
- [Spring Wind* in the Western Balkans](https://cfwbs.org/spring-wind-in-the-western-balkans/): The victory of the “Tisza” party led by Péter Magyar and the defeat of Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz have the potential to become one of the most notable political shifts in Central and Southeastern Europe. This also concerns the Western Balkans — a region where Hungary under Orbán has been one of the most active and controversial players. Viktor Orbán has for many years been building his own network of influence in the Western Balkans. His government actively supported regional political leaders who shared his political views and his geopolitical orientation. Moreover, this was not only about support at the level…
- [Serbia between the street and the ballot box: will Vučić call snap elections this year](https://cfwbs.org/serbia-between-the-street-and-the-ballot-box-will-vucic-call-snap-elections-this-year/): For several years now, the socio-political life of Serbia — one of the key states for stability and security in the Western Balkans, as well as a country with an extremely ambiguous geopolitical positioning — has been going through a rather turbulent and dramatic period. The country is regularly swept by large-scale protests, driven by students and youth, but which have brought together a fairly diverse public from many social strata and ideological backgrounds. At the same time, this is not always specifically a pro-European public. The main unifying factor for the protesters is the rejection of the figure of…
- [Western Balkans Overview Apr 06, 2026 – CWBS](https://cfwbs.org/western-balkans-overview-apr-06-2026-cwbs/): Two backpacks containing explosives and detonators were found on 5 April during a patrol a few hundred meters from the Balkan Stream gas pipeline, the continuation of TurkStream, near the town of Kanjiža in the autonomous province of Vojvodina in northern Serbia, not far from the border with Hungary. It is through this pipeline that Russian gas is transported to Hungary. Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić immediately called Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán to inform him of the dangerous discovery. After that, the head of the Hungarian government convened an emergency meeting of the Defence Council. In a video address published…
- [The sabotage that did not come to be](https://cfwbs.org/the-sabotage-that-did-not-come-to-be/): On 5 April, explosives and devices for their activation were found not far from the Balkan Stream gas pipeline (the continuation of TurkStream in the Balkans). Components of the suspected explosive device were discovered during a routine patrol in the municipality of Kanjiža in the autonomous province of Vojvodina, near the border with Hungary. The director of Serbia’s Military Security Agency (VBA), Đuro Jovanić, later reported that “explosives, specially packaged, hermetically sealed, detonator caps, specially prepared and packaged for transport, as well as detonating fuse and the corresponding tools and equipment for preparing these explosives to carry out sabotage” had…
- [Local elections: Vučić personally against the youth of Serbia – Boris Varga](https://cfwbs.org/local-elections-vucic-personally-against-the-youth-of-serbia-boris-varga/): On one side, beautiful and intelligent young people, and on the other, the President of Serbia and figures with the appearance of thugs The local elections in ten municipalities left the impression that these were parliamentary or even presidential elections in Serbia. Although numerous observers did not complain about procedural violations of the elections, outside the polling stations a real battlefield was unfolding. The conditions were not fair and democratic; opposite the student and opposition lists, which had virtually no budgets, there stood an entire enormous state machine with millions in resources and with the President of Serbia, Aleksandar Vučić,…
- [North Macedonia between European fatigue and the question of identity](https://cfwbs.org/north-macedonia-between-european-fatigue-and-the-question-of-identity/): In European politics, it is difficult to find an example of such a long, exhausting, and nerve-wracking path as that of North Macedonia. The raw figures here speak for themselves: the country applied for EU membership back in 2004, received candidate status in 2005, and the first intergovernmental conference between Skopje and Brussels was held only 17 years later — in July 2022. As of spring 2026, North Macedonia has completed the screening of all negotiating clusters, but has not yet moved to the next real phase of negotiations. This is precisely the main paradox of the Macedonian European integration…
- [Western Balkans Overview Mar 27, 2026 – CWBS](https://cfwbs.org/western-balkans-overview-mar-27-2026-cwbs/): The Constitutional Court of Kosovo declared invalid the decree of the current President Vjosa Osmani on the dissolution of parliament, ruling that the document has no legal force. The Court decided that due to the specific circumstances of the formation of the current composition of parliament, which was elected on 28 December 2025 and began its work on 11 February 2026, the deputies objectively did not have the full 60 days (until 5 March) provided by the procedure for electing the president. According to the Court’s decision, parliament receives 34 days to complete the procedure for electing the president. If…
- [Tirana gaining momentum: what is currently happening with Albania’s European integration](https://cfwbs.org/tirana-gaining-momentum-what-is-currently-happening-with-albanias-european-integration/): In Albania — which just three decades ago was one of the poorest countries in Europe and which at one time experienced one of the harshest communist regimes of Enver Hoxha — the topic of EU accession has long ceased to be a typical regional political mantra about a “European future.” In Tirana, the European path is already presented as a political timetable: Albanian Prime Minister Edi Rama declares the intention to complete negotiations by the end of 2027 and bring the country to EU membership by 2030. Quite recently this would have sounded like a typical set of ambitious…
- [Political storm in Slovenia](https://cfwbs.org/political-storm-in-slovenia/): This year’s election campaign in Slovenia was unprecedentedly scandalous, but the sensational revelations failed to lead to fundamental changes on the country’s political map. After the parliamentary elections on 22 March, the party of Prime Minister Robert Golob, Gibanje Svoboda (“Freedom Movement”), is leading by a minimal margin. According to preliminary counts, the opposition Slovenska demokratska stranka — SDS (Slovenian Democratic Party) of Janez Janša is trailing the leader by tenths of a percent. At the same time, as analysts note, both political forces received more votes than forecast, although neither will be able to form a government on its…
- [Western Balkans Overview Mar 19, 2026 – CWBS](https://cfwbs.org/western-balkans-overview-mar-19-2026-cwbs/): On 9 March, a photo of a Serbian MiG-29 fighter jet equipped with two Chinese hypersonic CM-400 AKG missiles appeared on a military-technical forum. This was the first confirmation that such missiles are in service with Serbia. The CM-400 AKG is a quasi-ballistic air-to-surface missile developed by the Chinese corporation CASIC. Before that, it had been in the possession only of China and Pakistan. Serbia became the first country in Europe to receive this weapon. A few days after the first photo appeared, Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić acknowledged the purchase of the Chinese missiles, stating that the CM-400 AKG is…
- [Podgorica between a breakthrough and the limits of what is possible](https://cfwbs.org/podgorica-between-a-breakthrough-and-the-limits-of-what-is-possible/): In Montenegro, EU membership is not only promised, but also painted on airplanes: at the end of February, the government launched the campaign “28by28 – The Next EU Member” and literally placed its European integration ambition on the fuselage of an Air Montenegro aircraft. Prime Minister Milojko Spajić called this slogan a “strategic message of the state.” Translated from political language, this means that the authorities are positioning accession to the EU no longer as a dream, but as an almost calendar-based plan: to close the negotiating chapters by the end of 2026 and enter the EU by the end…
- [Regional arms race or political bluff?](https://cfwbs.org/regional-arms-race-or-political-bluff/): An “accidental” photograph that appeared on military forums at the beginning of March 2026 sparked a heated discussion about the security situation in Southeastern Europe and caused tension in Belgrade’s relations with its neighbors. In the image, a Serbian MiG-29 fighter jet was captured with the latest weaponry that had not previously appeared in the arsenals of any country in Europe. It concerns Chinese hypersonic CM-400 AKG missiles capable of striking targets at a distance of hundreds of kilometers. The appearance of such weapons in Belgrade not only changed the balance of power in the region but also provoked a…
- [Western Balkans Overview Mar 10, 2026 – CWBS](https://cfwbs.org/western-balkans-overview-mar-10-2026-cwbs/): On 5 March, the Kosovo Parliament failed to vote on the election of a new president due to the lack of a quorum. Only 66 deputies were present in the hall instead of the 80 required for the vote to be held. According to the Constitution, the President of Kosovo is elected by a two-thirds majority (80 votes) in the first two rounds or by 61 votes in the third round, but 80 deputies must still be present in the hall for the session to be held. The presidential election failed after the opposition parties left the session, refusing to…
- [Fight against terrorism or hybrid influence?](https://cfwbs.org/fight-against-terrorism-or-hybrid-influence/): In the Republika Srpska, at the Training Center of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of RS, at the end of January this year a representative office of the Counter Terrorism Centre of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Hungary was opened. The official purpose of the activity is described as the exchange of information to prevent terrorist threats, the conduct of joint trainings (including in tactical medicine), and scientific and technical support for the special units of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of RS. But is the opening of the TEK office merely narrow professional cooperation between the security structures…
- [Desecrated Shevchenko and The Struggle for Democracy in Serbia – Boris Varga](https://cfwbs.org/desecrated-shevchenko-and-the-struggle-for-democracy-in-serbia-boris-varga/): The monument to Taras Shevchenko has become a symbol of resistance to Russian influence and propaganda in Serbia It would not even be known that in Serbia and Novi Sad there exists a monument to the Ukrainian poet, painter and fighter for freedom Taras Shevchenko, had it not been desecrated several times. The first time was immediately at the beginning of the total Russian invasion of Ukraine, when on the pedestal of Shevchenko the letter symbol of the Russian occupation “Z” was written. The second time it was damaged on the fourth anniversary of the aggression, the bust was poured…
- [Western Balkans Overview Mar 02, 2026 – CWBS](https://cfwbs.org/western-balkans-overview-mar-02-2026-cwbs/): Against the backdrop of full-scale hostilities by the United States and Israel against Iran, the countries of the region are cautious in their assessments, although there are exceptions in the form of accusations of “violations of international law.” Some Western Balkan countries remain silent altogether. Albania: Designation of the IRGC as terrorists Prime Minister Edi Rama emphasized that Albania’s position is not only to support Israel or Arab countries seeking peace, and not merely aligned with the position of strategic allies, but also reflects the need for concrete action at a moment when, according to him, “actions are needed, not…
- [Oil Geopolitics](https://cfwbs.org/oil-geopolitics/): The dispute between Budapest and Zagreb over the possibility of transporting Russian oil through the JANAF Adriatic oil pipeline goes far beyond commercial relations. Geopolitics, global energy policy, European foreign and security policy, domestic political struggle in Hungary — all of this is not merely the background, but also the substance of the dispute between two neighbours and two long-standing partners in the oil business. Longing for Fiume and “war speculation” The exemptions for Hungary and Slovakia regarding the import of Russian oil were introduced as part of the EU’s sixth sanctions package in 2022. The main reason was their…
- [Western Balkans Overview Feb 22, 2026 – CWBS](https://cfwbs.org/western-balkans-overview-feb-22-2026-cwbs/): On 19 February in Washington, the inaugural meeting of the “Board of Peace” was held under the chairmanship of Donald Trump, attended by representatives of more than 40 countries and observers from a dozen others. At the meeting, the launch of international stabilization forces was discussed, whose task will be to monitor borders, support security, and demilitarize Gaza. Albania and Kosovo, together with Indonesia, Morocco, and Kazakhstan, were among the five countries that agreed to send their military contingents to the Gaza Strip. President of Kosovo Vjosa Osmani noted that participation in the Board side by side with countries that…
- [Selver Hrustić: From Mercenary to Penitent - Nino Bilajac](https://cfwbs.org/selver-hrustic-from-mercenary-to-penitent-nino-bilajac/): It is September 2025 and Selver Hrustić, a man from Zenica, a Bosnian and a Muslim, as he describes himself, is traveling to Moscow. He has decided to fight in the Russian army—ideologically motivated, at least according to his own testimony in front Detektor cameras, which interviewed him during his three-month captivity in Ukraine. Captured at the front, this 35-year-old recounts his story and the reasons behind joining the Russian military and going to the front lines. Hrustić explains that he arrived in Moscow on September 4, landing at Sheremetyevo Airport late at night. “There, I told the police—I already…
- [“A big stick” of Trump and Vučić goes to Europe](https://cfwbs.org/a-big-stick-of-trump-and-vucic-goes-to-europe/): A few days ago it became known that the Polish Newsmax is preparing to launch. The channel is recruiting journalists and television production specialists, renting a studio in Warsaw and already planning the start of broadcasting. At the first stage, the media project Newsmax Polska will operate as an online service, and at the next stage – as a full-fledged television broadcaster. The launch of the conservative right-wing channel on the Polish market is being handled by the media company Newsmax Balkans headquartered in Belgrade (also involving the company Adria DTH BV). Preparations for the opening of Newsmax Polska were…
- [Western Balkans Overview Feb 13, 2026 – CWBS](https://cfwbs.org/western-balkans-overview-feb-13-2026-cwbs/): Albulena Haxhiu was elected Speaker of the Parliament of Kosovo. The candidate from the Self-Determination Movement (Lëvizjes Vetëvendosje) received 66 votes “in favour” and 44 “against.” 8 deputies out of the 118 present abstained from voting. The elected Deputy Speakers of Parliament are Ardian Gola from the Self-Determination Movement (Lëvizjes Vetëvendosje), Vlora Çitaku from the Democratic Party of Kosovo, Kujtim Shala from the Democratic League of Kosovo, Emilja Rexhepi from the multi-ethnic group, and Slavko Simić from the Kosovo Serb party “Srpska lista.” The decisions were adopted on 11 February, on the first day of work of the Parliament of…
- [The Republic of Kosovo after the December 2025 elections: political challenges and institutional expectations – Orhan M. Çeku](https://cfwbs.org/the-republic-of-kosovo-after-the-december-2025-elections-political-challenges-and-institutional-expectations/): On 11 February 2026, the Assembly of Kosovo approved the formation of the new government led by Prime Minister Albin Kurti, marking the official start of Kurti Government III. In an extraordinary evening session, 66 deputies voted in favour and 49 against, enabling the swift establishment of a cabinet composed of 19 ministries. This vote followed the constitutive session of the new legislature formed after the December 2025 elections and ended the post‑electoral uncertainty, allowing institutions to move forward with governing responsibilities Introduction The December 2025 parliamentary elections gave Kosovo a clear political result: the Lëvizja Vetëvendosje – VV (Self-Determination…
- [Western Balkans Overview Feb 04, 2026 – CWBS](https://cfwbs.org/western-balkans-overview-feb-04-2026-cwbs/): On 28 January, the Parliament of Serbia adopted amendments to a number of laws concerning the judiciary, proposed by a member of parliament from the ruling Serbian Progressive Party (SNS), the chair of the parliamentary Committee on the Judiciary, Uglješa Mrdić. On 30 January, the President of Serbia, Aleksandar Vučić, signed the “Mrdić laws.” The opposition and experts in the field of justice emphasize that the consequences of the adopted laws will be increased government control over the judicial system and the paralysis of the Public Prosecutor’s Office for Organized Crime (TOC). According to the new legal provisions, more than…
- [Silent Struggle – A New Phase of Student and Civic Protest in Serbia – Boris Varga](https://cfwbs.org/silent-struggle-a-new-phase-of-student-and-civic-protest-in-serbia-boris-varga/): The regime is trying to restore the rule of fear, but repression only further increases public dissatisfaction The protest has worn out, students are tired, they are giving up… – can be heard from pessimists. Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić is satisfied, cynically counting demonstrators, offering young people cooked beans to go back out onto the streets. There are no frequent and massive protests, blockades, or marches. Has the student revolt truly faded, or has it entered a new phase? Usually, protests have the dynamics of a match – an outbreak, mass mobilization, and a final achievement of goals or the…
- [The Banjska Case](https://cfwbs.org/the-banjska-case/): More than two and a half years have passed since the armed incident in the village of Banjska in northern Kosovo brought the region to the brink of a new war. Yet to this day, those responsible for organizing and carrying out the attack have not been punished — primarily due to the position of official Belgrade. It is likely that the Serbian authorities presumed that, against the backdrop of global geopolitical upheavals, the shootout in some Balkan village would quickly be forgotten. But this did not happen. Public statements by NATO leadership and the previously expressed position of the…
- [Western Balkans Overview Jan 26, 2026 – CWBS](https://cfwbs.org/western-balkans-overview-jan-26-2026-cwbs/): Truck drivers from Serbia, Montenegro, North Macedonia, and Bosnia and Herzegovina began mass blockades of border crossings for freight transport on January 26. The trigger for the protest was the introduction of the new monitoring system for entering and leaving the European Union (EES), but the main dissatisfaction of the protesters is related to the application to truck drivers of the same Schengen stay rules as those applied to tourists. According to the rules, drivers from non-EU countries are allowed to stay in the Schengen Area for no more than 90 days within any 180-day period. Transport associations from the…
- [Ecological protest or external pressure and an attempt at destabilization?  – Ljubomir Filipović](https://cfwbs.org/ecological-protest-or-external-pressure-and-an-attempt-at-destabilization-ljubomir-filipovic/): Around the New Year, things have stirred up in Montenegro once again. Threats of sabotage, blockades of the most important traffic arteries, and a media campaign conducted by Montenegrin and Serbian media close to the authorities in Serbia. All of this is put in the context of ethnic and identity differences in Montenegro. This is a well-coordinated and well-known pattern that has burdened Montenegro since the political changes of 2020. The actors are well known to the local and regional public, as are their open and undisguised ties with Belgrade and Moscow. The first and loudest actor is the Democratic…
- [Powder Keg 2.0](https://cfwbs.org/powder-keg-2-0/): The Western Balkans, and the broader region of Southeast Europe as a whole, are undergoing the most intensive phase of rearmament since the end of the Yugoslav wars. The largest countries in the region are carrying out the most expensive military modernization since the 1990s, replacing the “socialist” legacy with modern Western and Eastern systems. This process, which experts describe as a “quasi-arms race,” entered a phase of systemic reforms in 2025–2026, including large-scale procurement of equipment and the return of mandatory conscription. Serbia: Regional Leader Serbia retains its status as the regional leader in terms of defense spending. By…
- [Western Balkans Overview Jan 16, 2026 – CWBS](https://cfwbs.org/western-balkans-overview-jan-16-2026-cwbs/): The European Commission has approved and forwarded for adoption by the Council of the EU the national defence plans of eight Member States — Belgium, Bulgaria, Denmark, Spain, Cyprus, Portugal, Romania, and Croatia. This decision was taken following a thorough assessment of the countries’ “National Defence Investment Plans” under the SAFE (Security Action for Europe) initiative. The approval of the plans paves the way for the first wave of low-priced long-term loans, which will allow these countries to urgently enhance their military readiness and procure the necessary modern defence equipment. President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen said:…
- [Hybrid Warfare in Kosovo and the Western Balkans - Orhan M. Çeku](https://cfwbs.org/hybrid-warfare-in-kosovo-and-the-western-balkans-orhan-m-ceku/): Introduction In the modern era, where the boundaries between peace and war have become increasingly blurred, a new concept of conflict has emerged that dominates strategic thinking and global security policy—this concept is known as Hybrid Warfare. This term, now widely used by scholars, security analysts, and international institutions, represents a new way of understanding warfare. At its core, it is an undeclared war—a battle fought simultaneously across multiple fronts: on the ground, in cyberspace, in the media, and within public consciousness. This form of warfare has become symbolic of our digital age, where information, perception, and influence are just…
- [Western Balkans Overview Jan 09, 2026 – CWBS](https://cfwbs.org/western-balkans-overview-jan-09-2026-cwbs/): In the snap parliamentary elections in Kosovo held on 28 December, the Self-Determination Movement (Lëvizja Vetëvendosje, LVV) of the current head of the Government of Kosovo, Albin Kurti, received 51.11 percent of the votes, or 57 mandates, according to the final results published on the website of the Central Election Commission of Kosovo after all votes were counted. In second place was the Democratic Party of Kosovo (Partia Demokratike e Kosovës — PDK), which received 20.19 percent of the votes and 22 seats in parliament; in third place was the Democratic League of Kosovo (Lidhja Demokratike e Kosovës — LDK)…
- [One people - Vitalii Portnikov](https://cfwbs.org/one-people-vitalii-portnikov/): In his recent speech at a meeting of the collegium of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, President Putin, illustrating the West’s contemptuous attitude toward Russia after the collapse of the Soviet Union, also mentioned the disappearance of Yugoslavia from the political map of the world and, of course, the suffering of the Serbs — “they were scattered out across different state apartments.” This statement by Putin once again illustrates that in his actions in the post-Soviet space there is not merely a desire to take revenge on someone or to restore “lost” Soviet territory, but also a…
- [Western Balkans Overview Jan 02, 2026 – CWBS](https://cfwbs.org/western-balkans-overview-jan-02-2026-cwbs/): On 31 December 2025, the Office of Foreign Assets Control of the U.S. Department of the Treasury (OFAC) extended the operating license for the Oil Industry of Serbia (Naftna industrija Srbije, NIS) until 23 January 2026. Serbian Prime Minister Đuro Macut emphasized on 1 January that the extension of the license makes it possible for NIS and the Pančevo oil refinery to continue operating. According to Serbian sources, obtaining the license was the result of intensive diplomatic activity and negotiations conducted by Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić with OFAC and the U.S. Department of State, with the participation of Hungarian Prime…
- [Western Balkan – 2025](https://cfwbs.org/western-balkan-2025/): The main outcome of 2025 for the Western Balkan was a prevented deterioration of the security situation in the region. Although at the beginning of the year the forecasts were different and not always encouraging. In conclusion, 2025 became a period of relative stability from the security point of view, but also a period of political turbulence, institutional crises, EU integration at different speeds, and geopolitical equilibristics. Protests without a significant result Protest activity in Serbia in 2025 was a direct consequence of the societal shock after the tragedy of 1 November 2024 in Novi Sad (the collapse of the…
- [Western Balkans Overview Dec 24, 2025 – CWBS](https://cfwbs.org/western-balkans-overview-dec-24-2025-cwbs/): On the evening of 16 December, the President of Serbia, Aleksandar Vučić, announced that no Serbian official would represent Serbia at the EU–Western Balkans summit on 17 December in Brussels. “For the first time in the past 13 or 14 years, neither I nor anyone else will go to this intergovernmental conference. No one will represent the Republic of Serbia, so the Western Balkans will be left without the Republic of Serbia,” Vučić said on RTS. “I believe that by this step I am protecting Serbia and its interests, because we must show what we have done, and we have…
- [Women are targets of dictatorship in Serbia - Boris Varga](https://cfwbs.org/women-are-targets-of-dictatorship-in-serbia-boris-varga/): Professor of sociology Marija Vasić from Novi Sad is the first political prisoner in Serbia since the democratic changes of 2000. She was arrested together with activists and members of the Movement of Free Citizens after unlawful wiretapping, and a fabricated trial for planning a coup d’état is underway against her and her associates. At the beginning of the year in Novi Sad, four activists of the Serbian Progressive Party attacked a group of students with baseball bats and broke the jaw of a female student of the Academy of Arts. President Aleksandar Vučić pardoned the attackers and called them…
- [Montenegro and the EU: A Window That Must Not Close - Ljubomir Filipović](https://cfwbs.org/montenegro-and-the-eu-a-window-that-must-not-close-ljubomir-filipovic/): What is currently happening with Montenegro in the context of European integration is qualitatively different from anything we have witnessed over the past decade. After more than twelve years of a de facto pause in the EU’s enlargement policy, signals coming from the leaders of EU member states suggest that Brussels is—at least symbolically—ready to restart the process. This is not about a new grand vision of enlargement, nor about a fundamental strategic shift within the Union, but rather about the need to demonstrate that enlargement policy is not a dead letter. In this context, Montenegro emerges as an ideal…
- [Western Balkans Overview Dec 17, 2025 – CWBS](https://cfwbs.org/western-balkans-overview-dec-17-2025-cwbs/): Montenegro has achieved a breakthrough on its path toward the European Union, officially closing five negotiation chapters at once. This significant progress prompted the European Commissioner for Enlargement, Marta Kos, to state that the country has “never been closer to the EU” and is the most advanced candidate for accession. According to official reports, Montenegro has provisionally closed negotiations on the following five chapters (which are part of the Internal Market and Sustainable Economic Growth clusters): Chapter 3 – Right of establishment and freedom to provide services. Chapter 4 – Free movement of capital. Chapter 6 – Company law. Chapter…
- [Eurointegration of “Brotherhood and Unity”](https://cfwbs.org/eurointegration-of-brotherhood-and-unity/): As of December 2025, the European integration of the Western Balkans is in an active phase and is a priority both for the region and for the EU. But while some countries are demonstrating record achievements, others are treading water. Against the backdrop of accelerated progress of some countries and geopolitical dead ends of others, the President of Serbia Aleksandar Vučić put forward a loud proposal for the simultaneous accession of all six countries of the region to the EU. The President of Serbia voiced his position on 10 December at a forum in Belgrade. “If you accept one, two…
- [How We Infiltrated Telegram Channels Recruiting for the Russian Army - Nino Bilajac](https://cfwbs.org/how-we-infiltrated-telegram-channels-recruiting-for-the-russian-army/): For several months, we monitored Telegram channels that recruit citizens from the region into the Russian military. In a four-month investigation, we infiltrated a private recruitment channel on Telegram, intended for joining the Russian army to fight in Ukraine. At the same time, we communicated with several well-known Serbian mercenaries already in Russia – including a man named Davor Savičić from Republika Srpska, who even offered to organize an airport pickup at Moscow’s „Vnukovo“ Airport. We joined a Telegram group called “SVO” (an abbreviation for “Special Military Operation”), where recruitment messages multiplied. One sentence was crucial: “Brothers, don’t forget: for…
- [Western Balkans Overview Dec 08, 2025 – CWBS](https://cfwbs.org/western-balkans-overview-dec-08-2025-cwbs/): The sanctioned “Oil Industry of Serbia (NIS), whose majority stake is owned by Russian companies, failed to receive a positive response to its request to the Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) of the U.S. Department of the Treasury regarding the issuance of a special license intended to ensure the uninterrupted operation of the company, primarily the oil refinery in Pančevo. “I am disappointed. We did not receive a positive decision from the United States,” President of Serbia Aleksandar Vučić stated on 2 December. Due to the lack of permission from the United States, the Pančevo refinery has begun shutting…
- [The “General Staff” Case as an Exam for Vučić](https://cfwbs.org/the-general-staff-case-as-an-exam-for-vucic/): The project for the reconstruction of the former General Staff complex in the center of Belgrade, which the Serbian government planned to implement together with the son-in-law of U.S. President Donald Trump, has become a true test for Aleksandar Vučić. The agreement between the Serbian government and Jared Kushner’s company, instead of becoming an example of successful foreign-policy lobbying and well-considered economic pragmatism, has turned into a reason for yet another wave of public discontent, an escalation of internal political confrontation, and even the beginning of an investigation into high-ranking officials. An architectural monument as a construction site The complex…
- [Western Balkans Overview Nov 29, 2025 – CWBS](https://cfwbs.org/western-balkans-overview-nov-29-2025-cwbs/): Against the background of U.S. sanctions against the company “Naftna Industrija Srbije” (NIS), controlled by Russia’s Gazprom Neft, Budapest has taken on a key role in supplying Serbia with petroleum products. On 26–27 November, Hungary’s Minister of Foreign Affairs and Trade Péter Szijjártó paid a visit to Belgrade. During the visit, he announced that the Hungarian company MOL had doubled its deliveries of petroleum products to Serbia in November and would increase them 2.5 times in December. All possible routes are being used for this: road transport, railways, and river transport along the Danube. “We are doing everything so that…
- [Walk on the edge (Balsa Bozovic)](https://cfwbs.org/walk-on-the-edge-balsa-bozovic/): The 2025 European Commission Report arrived at a moment when Aleksandar Vučić appeared to have temporarily consolidated his authoritarian rule after a year of the most severe political crisis of his tenure. Following more than twelve months of protests and intense unrest across the country, triggered by the collapse of the Novi Sad railway station in which sixteen citizens lost their lives, it seemed that by prolonging the political deadlock, exhausting the student movement, and wearing down the broader civic revolt, he had managed to reassert control. In parallel, he initiated deep structural changes within the army, police, and security…
- [Vučić can politically resurrect as prime minister (Boris Varga)](https://cfwbs.org/vucic-can-politically-resurrect-as-prime-minister-boris-varga/): In Serbia, the control of elections will be important, but also the post-election combinatorics. The anniversary of the collapse of the canopy in Novi Sad, where 16 people deceased, passed in the continuity of mutual exhaustion of protesters and the government in Serbia. Aleksandar Vučić did not manage to suppress, break, divide, discredit the protests, while on the other side the protesters did not manage to force the President of Serbia to call early parliamentary elections. Serbia is, as never before, a divided society of “blockers” (as the government calls the protesters) and “ćacije” (as the protesters call the supporters…
- [Western Balkans Overview Nov 21, 2025 – CWBS](https://cfwbs.org/western-balkans-overview-nov-21-2025-cwbs/): Cluster 5, “Resources, Agriculture and Cohesion,” was officially opened during the Intergovernmental Conference in Brussels. This step has symbolic and technical significance: it means that all 33 negotiation chapters, grouped into six thematic clusters, are now formally open for negotiations. Representatives of the European Union highly praised the speed of Tirana’s reforms, emphasizing the merit-based principle and the geopolitical importance of enlargement. Denmark’s Minister for European Affairs, Marie Bjerre, confirmed the strategic importance of this process: “Enlargement is a geopolitical necessity for the EU… Today’s step of opening the last negotiation cluster with Albania demonstrates the country’s commitment to further…
- [Kosovo Will Try to Reset Itself](https://cfwbs.org/kosovo-will-try-to-reset-itself/): On 28 December 2025, Kosovo will hold early parliamentary elections, which will be the second parliamentary elections within a year. The re-election of the parliament became inevitable after nine months of political paralysis caused by the inability to form a government following the elections of 9 February. President Vjosa Osmani announced the dissolution of parliament on 20 November, when it became finally clear that no political force was capable of ensuring a stable majority and forming an executive. The December elections will take place amid a deep institutional crisis, a frozen budget, sanctions from the EU and the USA, and…
- [Western Balkans Overview Nov 12, 2025 – CWBS](https://cfwbs.org/western-balkans-overview-nov-12-2025-cwbs/): The President of Serbia, Aleksandar Vučić, in an interview with the German outlet Cicero, stated that the Serbian defense industry is increasing the production of ammunition and offered the European Union to purchase all available products, even on the condition that this ammunition may end up in Ukraine. “Our warehouses are full of ammunition, and we are producing more, especially mortar shells. We produce more ammunition than France. Although I do not want to be perceived as a person who constantly supplies ammunition to warring sides, ammunition is needed in Europe. Therefore, I offered our friends in the EU the…
- [How Russia Created an Oil Trap for Serbia](https://cfwbs.org/how-russia-created-an-oil-trap-for-serbia/): The oil industry of Serbia has found itself on the verge of catastrophe due to its dependence on Russia. The sanctions strike, aimed at weakening the Russian energy sector and undermining the financing of the war, simultaneously jeopardized the entire Serbian energy system, which turned out to be part of the Russian network. Belgrade had long sustained the viability of Russian shadow schemes while attempting to demonstrate its commitment to friendly relations with Washington and progress in European integration. But the era of ostentatious “Serbian neutrality” has come to an end. Energetic Sanctions in the Energy Sector On October 8,…
- [Has External Influence Played a Decisive Role in Anti-Immigration Mobilization in Montenegro? (Ljubomir Filipović)](https://cfwbs.org/violence-against-turkish-nationals-in-montenegro/): The violence against Turkish nationals that occurred in Montenegro represents the culmination of a weeks-long anti-immigration campaign of hatred and disinformation in the domestic media and social sphere. This campaign did not arise suddenly nor was it spontaneous. It was the result of accumulated discontent, years of pressure on the real estate market and the standard of living, as well as the organized spread of the narrative portraying “foreigners” as the cause of all economic and social problems. What particularly drew public attention and raised political suspicions was the fact that among the most active promoters of this narrative were…
- [How Detektor Journalists Found the Russian Spy (Nino Bilajac)](https://cfwbs.org/how-detektor-journalists-found-the-russian-spy-nino-bilajac/): Polish prosecutors are investigating acts of sabotage involving courier shipments containing hidden incendiary devices that ignited during transport, causing fires at Leipzig and Birmingham airports. The investigation also includes plans to send similar packages to the United States and Canada. Following the trail of the Russian accused of terrorism, the failures of BiH institutions, and an investigation that (wasn’t) conducted, Detektor brings previously unknown details about Aleksandr Bezrukavyi (Aleksandr B.), whom BiH extradited to Poland for planning sabotage operations. For almost a year, we tried to understand how Aleksandr Bezrukavyi, a Russian citizen whom Poland accuses of sabotage, espionage, and…
- [Western Balkans Overview Nov 03, 2025 – CWBS](https://cfwbs.org/western-balkans-overview-nov-03-2025-cwbs/): At 11:52 a.m. on November 1, in the city of Novi Sad, tens of thousands of people from all over Serbia, at the call of students, held a 16-minute silent memorial to honor the memory of 16 people who died as a result of the collapse of the concrete canopy of the city’s railway station a year ago. The Government of Serbia decided to declare November 1 a Day of mourning to mark the anniversary of the tragedy. Throughout Serbia, memorial events were also held in major cities in honor of the victims. In many cities abroad, from Utrecht to…
- [“Hybrid Boot”: Russian Influence in the Western Balkans](https://cfwbs.org/hybrid-boot-russian-influence-in-the-western-balkans/): During a roundtable in Sarajevo, participants of the discussion sought to analyze the phenomenon of Russian presence in the region. The discussion, moderated by Balša Božović, founder of the Regional Academy for Democratic Development (Serbia), was organized in early October by the Center for Western Balkans Studies (Montenegro). The latest developments in the region have confirmed and supplemented the views expressed during the meeting. Shifting Focus: From Humanitarian to Security Threats Today, in the Western Balkans, it is firmly believed that Russian presence in the region will be limited only to “soft power,” and that “the boot of the Russian…
- [Western Balkans Overview Oct 25, 2025 – CWBS](https://cfwbs.org/western-balkans-overview-oct-25-2025-cwbs/): On October 22, the European Parliament adopted a resolution on Serbia, expressing indignation over the country’s democratic backsliding and setting direct requirements for Belgrade to harmonize its foreign policy, particularly in the context of relations with Russia and China. The resolution was adopted with 457 votes in favor, 103 against, and 72 abstentions. Members of the European Parliament placed political responsibility for the situation in the country on Serbia’s leadership: the European Parliament “considers the Serbian leadership politically responsible for the escalation of repression, normalization of violence, and the weakening of democratic institutions.” The resolution condemns “a wave of violence,…
- [What the Political Reversal of Banja Luka Means](https://cfwbs.org/what-the-political-reversal-of-banja-luka-means/): The political crisis that had lasted in Bosnia and Herzegovina throughout the year, threatening to escalate into a security crisis not only in BiH but throughout the region, suddenly came to an end. Banja Luka, unexpectedly for many, put an end to the confrontation with Sarajevo by taking a step back: in mid-October, the National Assembly of Republika Srpska (NARS) annulled a number of controversial laws and decrees that violated the constitutional order of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and also officially recognized that Milorad Dodik is no longer the president of RS. But why did this happen, and what should be…
- [The illusion of brotherhood: how Russia uses the Balkans to feel great (Vitaliy Portnikov)](https://cfwbs.org/the-illusion-of-brotherhood-how-russiauses-the-balkans-to-feel-great-vitaliy-portnikov/): When we talk about Russia’s role in the Balkans, we should remember that there are two completely different periods of Russian influence on events in the region and in the former Yugoslavia. Before the breakup of Yugoslavia, Russia in fact had no real influence on internal processes — at least after the conflict between Tito and Stalin. Yugoslavia was then independent in its foreign policy, oriented toward the Non-Aligned Movement, with its own ideology of self-governance. Therefore, the current influence of Moscow is the result of new relations that were formed between the former Yugoslav republics and Russia after the…
- [Western Balkans Overview Oct 17, 2025 – CWBS](https://cfwbs.org/western-balkans-overview-oct-17-2025-cwbs/): European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, during her visit to Belgrade as part of her tour of Western Balkan countries, called on Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić to demonstrate “concrete progress” in key reforms necessary for the country’s advancement on its path toward European Union membership, including the alignment of foreign policy, primarily the introduction of sanctions against Russia. Von der Leyen clearly outlined the EU’s requirements, emphasizing the need for actions rather than words: “Now is the moment for Serbia to get concrete about joining our Union. Therefore, we need to see progress on the rule of law, the…
- [Montenegro at the Bifurcation Point*](https://cfwbs.org/montenegro-at-the-bifurcation-point/): *In its basic meaning, the term “bifurcation point” refers to a critical moment in the development of a given system when a small change can lead to entirely different outcomes. The term originates from chaos theory and nonlinear dynamic systems, but it can also be applied to social processes. The President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, during her visit to Montenegro on October 14, called Podgorica’s plan to close all chapters in negotiations with the EU next year and become the 28th EU member state by 2028 an ambitious, but achievable goal. According to her, Montenegro can…
- [Russia’s Interference in the Elections in Moldova as a Threat to the Stability of Southeastern Europe (Roman Russu)](https://cfwbs.org/russias-interference-in-the-elections-in-moldova-as-a-threat-to-the-stability-of-southeastern-europe-roman-russu/): The parliamentary elections held in Moldova on September 28 can truly be described as the most dramatic in the country’s history. The results of the elections determined the future not only of Moldova but of the entire region. Within the Republic of Moldova itself, the victory of the pro-European forces was called the country’s second day of independence from Russia. Everyone understood that the victory of political parties supported by the Kremlin would mean that the country would again become a “province” of the Russian Empire. Moreover, the latter devoted enormous resources to subjugate little Moldova. Just last year, Russia…
- [Western Balkans Overview Oct 09, 2025 – CWBS](https://cfwbs.org/western-balkans-overview-oct-09-2025-cwbs/): The sanctions imposed by the United States against Naftna industrija Srbije (NIS), after several postponements, came into effect on October 9. NIS was included in the U.S. sanctions list on January 10 due to the Russian ownership of its controlling stake. The American sanctions are aimed primarily at preventing the financing of Russia’s war in Ukraine through funds generated by Russian energy companies. The ownership structure of NIS has changed several times. However, the controlling stake of the company remains in the hands of Russian owners: since September, 11.3 percent of NIS shares belong to the joint-stock company Intelligence from…
- [Local Ballots, National Battles in Macedonia (Aleksandar Damovski)](https://cfwbs.org/local-ballots-national-battles-in-macedonia-aleksandar-damovski/): In these local elections, as in the previous ones, the rallies of political parties and the statements of political leaders are dominated by national issues rather than local ones. Macedonia is currently in the midst of the campaign for the eighth local elections since independence. What appears almost certain in these elections is the likely victory of the right-wing Christian Democratic ruling party VMRO-DPMNE, and the uncertainty of the outcome within the Albanian political camp. Until last year’s parliamentary elections, there was no uncertainty about who would represent the Albanian citizens in the Macedonian Parliament. For the 35 years of…
- [The Threat of Regional Media Blackout in the Western Balkans (Ljubomir Filipović)](https://cfwbs.org/the-threat-of-regional-media-blackout-in-the-western-balkans-ljubomir-filipovic/): In a space marked by weak institutions, unresolved identity issues, and the constant rivalry of authoritarian and democratic impulses, control over the media means control over all social processes. That is why the case of the United Media group and the crisis in which this network has found itself is much more than a matter of corporate business structure and commercial interests. The crisis of United Media is a story about the threat of a regional media blackout and about the possibility that the only serious pluralist voice in Serbia, and partly in the region, will be silenced under the…
- [Russian Hybrid Influence on the Western Balkans Discussed in Sarajevo](https://cfwbs.org/russian-hybrid-influence-on-the-western-balkans-discussed-in-sarajevo/): Russia remains a key factor of destabilization in the Western Balkan region — this was stated at the round table “Current Security and Stability Threats in the Western Balkans: Destructive External Influences and Internal Factors”, held on October 4 at the Holiday Hotel in Sarajevo (Bosnia and Herzegovina). The event, organized by the Center for Western Balkans Studies (CWBS) (Montenegro), gathered experts from Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, Serbia, Moldova, and Ukraine. The discussion focused on the strengthening of Russia’s hybrid influence, in particular Russian interference in the elections in Moldova, the political crises in Serbia, and the challenges of the…
- [Western Balkans Overview Sep 29, 2025 – CWBS](https://cfwbs.org/western-balkans-overview-sep-29-2025-cwbs/): On September 26 in Serbia, two persons were arrested, accused of organizing paramilitary training for citizens of Moldova and Romania. During a search of the suspects’ apartment, the police seized laptops, mobile phones, as well as a device for detecting and monitoring radio frequency signals. One of the suspects was also found in possession of weapons, for which he is additionally charged with a criminal offense – illegal production, storage, carrying, and trafficking of weapons and explosive substances. Investigative journalists reported that the persons in question are Lazar Popović and Savo Stevanović. The media discovered that the arrested individuals were…
- [Case of Moldova: How Russia and Serbia destabilize Southern Europe? (Boris Varga)](https://cfwbs.org/case-of-moldova-how-russia-and-serbia-destabilize-southern-europe-boris-varga/): The undermining of Euro-Atlantic processes in the region does not take place with the help of “soft power,” but mainly through armed force. On the eve of the parliamentary elections, the authorities of Moldova arrested more than 70 persons, suspected of having been engaged by Russia to organize mass riots during the electoral process. The arrested are citizens of Moldova who from July to September were trained in Serbia for handling weapons and clashes with the police, and the training plan was coordinated from the Russian Federation. The investigative network BIRN presents details that the training in a paramilitary camp…
- [Diella: a technological breakthrough or political theatre?](https://cfwbs.org/diella-a-technological-breakthrough-or-political-theatre/): In September 2025 Albania made history as the first country to appoint an artificial intelligence to a government post. The virtual minister “Diella” was given a mandate to oversee public procurement — an area that for decades has been a source of corruption scandals.This decision by Prime Minister Edi Rama provoked a wave of enthusiasm, skepticism and political debate both inside the country and beyond. AI against corruption “Diella” began her career as a virtual assistant on the e-Albania platform, where she processed more than one million requests. Her avatar — a woman in traditional dress from the Zadrima region…
- [Western Balkans Overview Sep 23, 2025 – CWBS](https://cfwbs.org/western-balkans-overview-sep-23-2025-cwbs/): As a result of 250 searches conducted on 22 September in Moldova, a large amount of money, weapons, and ammunition was seized, and 74 people were detained, suspected of having undergone training in Serbia to organize mass riots during the parliamentary elections on 28 September. These are people aged between 19 and 45 who, according to reports, systematically attended courses in Serbian military camps where they were taught to create provocations during protests, organize mass riots, and handle special equipment. According to the head of the Intelligence and Security Service of Moldova (SIS) Aleksandar Musteața, this training was coordinated by…
- [Montenegro, a Champion of Democratic Backsliding (Danilo Kalezic)](https://cfwbs.org/montenegro-a-champion-of-democratic-backsliding-danilo-kalezic/): Montenegro’s trajectory toward democracy was fundamentally shaped—and constrained—by its dominant party system. For decades, all aspects of political life were marked by the long-standing rule of the DPS. Although the 1997 split created an appearance of pluralism, the DPS retained overwhelming control, resembling other dominant-party systems such as Mexico under the PRI orJapan under the LDP. The 2020 governmental change, however, cannot be considered a democratic breakthrough. The process was hijacked by non-state and non-political actors, most notably the Serbian Orthodox Church and intelligence structures linked to Serbia and Russia. Rather than a case of democratic alternation, Montenegro became a…
- [Western Balkans Overview Sep 16, 2025 – CWBS](https://cfwbs.org/western-balkans-overview-sep-16-2025-cwbs/): Prime Minister of Albania Edi Rama, who won for the fourth time as a result of the parliamentary elections in May, presented his new cabinet on 11 September. Seven ministers from the previous cabinet left their posts, while seven new persons were appointed to head some of the country’s key ministries. In particular, Pirro Vengu will remain Minister of Defence. Elisa Spiropali, who held the position of Speaker of the Albanian Parliament, was appointed Minister of Foreign Affairs. One of the most important changes is the appointment of Albana Koçiu, the first woman to head the Ministry of Interior. A…
- [Exit from the crisis in Serbia - fair elections or the “Nepali scenario” (Boris Varga)](https://cfwbs.org/exit-from-the-crisis-in-serbia-fair-elections-or-the-nepali-scenario-boris-varga/): The regime in Belgrade fears only a blockade of the state and mass unrest Certainly President Aleksandar Vučić and his entourage closely followed the youth uprising and riots in Nepal, in which, due to corruption and violence against demonstrators, key state institutions and properties of members of the ruling party burned, while the crowd on the streets beat representatives of the authorities. Dozens killed, over two thousand wounded. Only ill-wishers could desire something like that for their country, but violence can certainly be a logical response to years of societal decay, repression and the arrogance of the ruling party caste.…
- [The EU has no solution for the bilateral problems of new members, Bulgaria — Macedonia (Aleksandar Damovski)](https://cfwbs.org/the-eu-has-no-solution-for-the-bilateral-problems-of-new-members-bulgaria-macedonia-aleksandar-damovski/): The question of European Union enlargement is increasingly being abused, and this is entirely contrary to the basic principles for becoming a new member, namely the Copenhagen criteria. Brussels’ silence and acceptance of such blockades go beyond what the rule of law, the fight against corruption, democracy and respect for human rights mean, and Macedonia felt this most sharply. Two neighbouring EU member states (Greece and Bulgaria), two major disputes. The latest protocol, signed between Macedonia and Bulgaria on 17 July 2022, is a criminal abuse of the position of an EU member state (Bulgaria). This was supposed to mean…
- [Western Balkans Overview Sep 08, 2025 – CWBS](https://cfwbs.org/western-balkans-overview-sep-08-2025-cwbs/): President of Serbia Aleksandar Vučić met with President of Russia Vladimir Putin in Beijing on 2 September, on the sidelines of events dedicated to the 80th anniversary of China’s victory over Japan in World War II. The main goal of the Serbian leader was to obtain the most favorable terms of a new gas contract with Moscow. The current agreement for the supply of Russian gas to Serbia, temporarily extended in May for only four months, allows Belgrade to import 6.1 million cubic meters of gas per day at a discounted price of €290 per 1,000 cubic meters, which is…
- [What Dodik’s Russian friends have in mind](https://cfwbs.org/what-dodiks-russian-friends-have-in-mind/): The leader of the Bosnian Serbs, Milorad Dodik, whom the Central Election Commission of Bosnia and Herzegovina deprived of the mandate of president, continued to play for higher stakes. He announced a series of visits to Russia during which he plans to secure support for achieving the independence of the Republika Srpska and for ending the mandate of the European military presence in BiH. “Fight against the occupation” In a recent interview with Russian media Dodik stated that he wants to put an end to the activities of the European Union military mission in Bosnia and Herzegovina, EUFOR Althea. For…
- [Russia, Serbia, and Other Security Risks for the Western Balkans Through the Eyes of Croatian Intelligence](https://cfwbs.org/russia-serbia-and-other-security-risks-for-the-western-balkans-through-the-eyes-of-croatian-intelligence/): The Western Balkans remain one of the most sensitive and vulnerable areas of the European security landscape, where a number of unresolved interstate and interethnic conflicts and contradictions, high social polarization, and the institutional weakness of the region’s countries create fertile ground for the destructive influence of external forces. It is in this context that the latest analytical report from the Croatian Security and Intelligence Agency (Sigurnosno-obavještajna agencija – SOA) should be considered. This document helps the public (especially the Croatian public) to react more effectively to security challenges. Moreover, in the 1990s, Croatia was a direct participant in the…
- [Western Balkans Overview Aug 30, 2025 – CWBS](https://cfwbs.org/western-balkans-overview-aug-30-2025-cwbs/): On August 28, the Central Election Commission (CEC) of Bosnia and Herzegovina announced early elections for the president of Republika Srpska (RS) for November 23 of this year. Four members of the CEC voted for this decision, while two were against it. The decision to call early presidential elections in the RS was made after the court confirmed the CEC of BiH’s decision to terminate Milorad Dodik’s presidential mandate on August 18. * * * At the same time, a day earlier, the National Assembly of Republika Srpska (NSRS) rejected the possibility of holding early presidential elections in the RS.…
- [Relations between Montenegro and Croatia and the destructive influence of pro-Serb politicians](https://cfwbs.org/relations-between-montenegro-and-croatia-and-the-destructive-influence-of-pro-serb-politicians/): Introduction On 4 August 2025, the Croatian Ministry of Foreign and European Affairs sent a note of protest to Montenegro. The occasion was the issuance of a new series of badges for the crew of the training ship Jadran. The Ministry of Defence of Montenegro stated that the badges were produced “as a sign of respect for the long-standing naval tradition and the significance that this ship has for our country (Montenegro).” The Croatian note of protest also announced that, as a result of a “detailed analysis of overall military succession,” Montenegro owes Croatia USD 2 billion. This effectively concerns…
- [Kosovo at a Deadlock](https://cfwbs.org/after-months-of-deliberation-kosovos-parliament-speaker-seat-remains-empty/): After Months of Deliberation, Kosovo’s Parliament Speaker Seat Remains Empty. Since Vjosa Osmani called the constitutive session of the Assembly on April 15th, Kosovo’s Parliament has attempted and failed the same assignment for the 57th time in a row: to elect the Parliament Speaker. To recap, the Self-Determination Movement (LVV, Vetëvendosje) secured the largest share of seats in the most recent parliamentary elections but fell short of the majority required to elect the Speaker of the Assembly—Albulena Haxhiu being their nominated Parliament Speaker. Repeated attempts to elect Haxhiu have failed more than 50 times, with opposition parties refusing to compromise,…

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- [About](https://cfwbs.org/about/): About the Center The Center for Western Balkan Studies is an independent think tank. The mission of the Center is to promote peace and harmony in the Western Balkans region and the wider region of South-Eastern Europe. The Center’s activities are aimed at thorough monitoring and analysis of the situation in one of the most turbulent regions of the European continent and providing an interested audience with an impartial expert assessment of the political, economic, social and security situation in the region. The Center is registered in Montenegro as a Non-Governmental Organization (NGO). The Executive Director of the Center is…
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