Western Balkans Overview Oct 28, 2024 – CWBS

Western Balkans Overview Oct 28, 2024 – CWBS
  • Serbia, Republika Srpska (BiH) take part in BRICS summit

Serbia was represented at the BRICS summit in Kazan (Russia) by Deputy Prime Minister Aleksandar Vulin, Minister of Defense Bratislav Gasic, Minister of Economy Adriana Mesarovic and Minister Nenad Popovic.

Republika  Srpska (Bosnia and Herzegovina) deployed President Milorad Dodik and the Minister of Scientific and Technological Development, Higher Education and Information Society Zeljko Budimir.

In Kazan, Milorad Dodik met with Russian President Vladimir Putin.  According to the RS leader, the meeting discussed the completion of the Serbian-Russian temple in Banja Luka and the strengthening of tourist contacts between the RS and the Russian Federation.

Aleksandar Vulin said he had discussed with Putin the global situation and the improvement of relations between Moscow and Belgrade.

Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić chose to skip the event.  During that period, he held meetings with Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk and Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis.  “It is his “fault” that I am not in Kazan,” Vucic emphasized in an address to the media after meeting with Tusk in Belgrade on October 24.

Later, the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, arrived in Serbia where she positively noted Vučić’s refusal to participate in the BRICS summit.

The absence of the Serbian president in Kazan and his meetings with European leaders demonstrated that Belgrade does not intend to replace the EU with BRICS at this stage.  At the same time, Banja Luka is increasingly being sucked into the Russian orbit.

  • European Commission president cancels talks with Serbian PM

The President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, canceled a meeting with the Prime Minister of Serbia, Miloš Vučević, because on the day of the announced meeting, the head of the Serbian government held negotiations with the Minister of Economic Development of Russia, Maksim Reshetnikov.

Von der Leyen’s meeting with Vučević was canceled during her visit to Belgrade as part of a diplomatic tour of the Western Balkans.  It should be noted that the meeting between the head of the European Commission and the President of Serbia, Aleksandar Vučić, during the same visit took place in a friendly atmosphere.

 The EC president canceled the meeting with Prime Minister Vučević after the announcement published on his website about the meeting with the Minister of Economy of Russia, European Commission spokeswoman Ana Pisonero said.  The statement says the two countries plan to strengthen cooperation in the economy and other areas.  In this context, it made no sense to hold the scheduled meeting, she emphasized.

After the meeting between Vučević and Reshetnikov, the Serbian government said in an official statement that the parties discussed further strengthening of economic and general cooperation between the two countries.  Speaking about Russia sanctions, Vučević noted that, despite great pressure, Serbia pursues a free and independent policy, which is its advantage, as it cooperates well with both the Russian Federation, the European Union, China, and other countries.

The Serbian Prime Minister also noted that Serbia is ready to discuss the extension of the contract for the supply of Russian gas.

It can be assumed that the continued purchase of Russian gas at special reduced prices became the main topic of negotiations between the head of the government of Serbia and the Russian minister.  For Belgrade, the signing of a profitable gas contract with Moscow is likely so important that the Serbian authorities are ready to deteriorate relations with Brussels for this purpose.

  • Vučić, Orbán, Fico discuss migration policy

Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić, Slovak and Hungarian Prime Ministers Robert Fico and Viktor Orbán met in the Slovak city of Komarno on October 22, where they discussed protecting the borders of the European Union from illegal migration and strengthening regional cooperation.

The leaders of Slovakia, Hungary, and Serbia said in a joint statement that “the decisions recently adopted at the European level do not appear to be effective or sustainable, and therefore they should be supplemented by further strengthening the regional dimension of cooperation in the fight against illegal migration.”

 “We achieved results by working together, it was not easy, but this year there are 80 percent fewer migrants than last year.  We will continue cooperation, and I believe that the results will be good,” Vučić emphasized at a joint press conference.

It was assumed that the three leaders would agree on the organization of temporary camps for migrants on the territory outside the EU, that is, in Serbia. But Vučić unequivocally stated that “Serbia will never host migrant camps for other countries” like Albania did (for Italy).

  • Failure to harmonize travel rules with EU to hinder BiH’s European integration

Bosnia and Herzegovina must harmonize travel regulations with the EU, strengthen the fight against corruption, and introduce budget monitoring in order to receive funds under the Growth Plan for the Western Balkans.

According to the Head of the BiH Council of Ministers, Borjana Krišto, the BiH authorities were informed about these three additional requirements.  “These are measures related to the visa regime, measures to fight corruption and crime, budget monitoring,” Krišto said after meeting with the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, who was in Bosnia and Herzegovina as part of a several-day tour of the region.

The most problematic for implementation may be the introduction of a visa regime agreed with the EU.  Visas are supposed to be introduced for citizens of Russia, China, Saudi Arabia, Oman, Qatar, and Turkey.  The authorities of the Republika Srpska categorically oppose this step, primarily because of their reluctance to introduce visas for Russians.

Bosnia and Herzegovina is currently the only country in the region that has failed to provide and agree with the EU the reform program needed to receive the grants and loans provided for in the Western Balkans Growth Plan.  However, the EU demonstrates its willingness to allocate funds to the country in emergency situations.  Thus, the European Commission decided to immediately attract EUR 20 million to provide assistance to the victims of the latest catastrophic flood in some areas of Bosnia and Herzegovina.

  • Hungary summons Croatian ambassador over minister’s statements about “Great Hungarian politics”

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Hungary summoned the Croatian ambassador in Budapest due to the recent statements by the Croatian Minister of Defense, Ivan Anušić.  Croatian Ambassador Mladen Andrlic was received at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs by the Deputy State Secretary responsible for the region, Hungarian media reported.

On October 22, during a debate in the Croatian Parliament regarding the participation of the Armed Forces of Croatia in the NSATU initiative (NATO Security Assistance and Training for Ukraine), which is opposed by the country’s president, Zoran Milanovic, Anušić stated that it’s only Hungary, among the Allies, who does not participate in this NATO program, and this is  “due to its Greater Hungary policy.”

“I come from the east of Croatia, and I have knowledge and experience about how Hungary does politics in our Baranja… Politics is being conducted that calls into question the territorial integrity of Croatia.  Hungary is not participating in the operation (NSATU) because it does not support NATO and the EU due to its Greater Hungary policy,” said the head of the Croatian Defense Ministry.

Earlier, Anušić also noted that, should Croatia refuse to participate in NSATU, it would put Croatia in line with Serbia and Hungary, “who openly support Russia.”

On October 25, Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó, answering questions at a joint press conference with his Cuban counterpart, said that Hungary seeks the best possible relations with all its neighbors, including Croatia, “and therefore it is surprising” that the Croatian Defense Minister insults  Hungarians  “I respectfully ask the Croatian government not to drag us into a domestic political debate with their president,” he added.

At the same time, Szijjártó did not refute the accusations of the Croatian minister regarding Budapest’s pro-Russian course.

  • Hungary, Poland vow contribution to Serbia’s European integration

“We see Serbia not only as a strategic partner, but also as a sincere friend. We will do everything for Serbia to become a full member of the European Union,” Hungarian President Tamás Sulyok said at a joint press conference with Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić. The Balkans cannot be stabilized without Serbia’s accession, the Hungarian head of state emphasized, adding that it is time to deliver on the promise made to the Western Balkans 20 years ago.

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“Soon, Poland will preside over the European Union, and during Poland’s presidency, the pursuing enlargement and cooperating with Serbia as closely as possible will be my priority,” said Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, who was on a two-day visit to Belgrade.  Poland supports Serbia’s European path, and the European Union is incomplete without Serbia, he said.

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The countries of Eastern Europe, which preside and will preside over the EU, show interest in the further European integration of Serbia.  It can be expected that, despite Belgrade’s refusal to align its foreign policy with Brussels (rejecting sanctions against Russia), Serbia can count on progress on its way to the EU by the end of this year and in the first half of 2025.

  • Inclusion of Bulgarians in Constitution remains precondition for North Macedonia’s European integration

Amending the Constitution is an obligation that North Macedonia must fulfill in order to continue its path to full EU membership.  This was stated by the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, after a meeting with Prime Minister Hristijan Mickoski.

It is about introducing the Bulgarian minority into the Constitution of North Macedonia.  These constitutional amendments serve as a condition for unlocking further European integration of North Macedonia by Bulgaria.  The previous government of North Macedonia agreed to fulfill the condition, but the incumbent one opposes it.

Von der Leyen, who was in North Macedonia as part of a tour of the Western Balkans, expressed confidence that the obstacle that is still in place will be tackled, constitutional changes will be introduced, and Skopje will be able to launch the EU accession negotiations.

Following the meeting, von der Leyen and Mickoski did not specify whether the European Commission agreed to provide Skopje with guarantees that, after the inclusion of the Bulgarian minority in the Constitution, Bulgaria will not put forward any new demands.

  • Another round of Serbia-Kosovo normalization dialogue yields no concrete agreements

On October 24, the delegations of Pristina and Belgrade had separate meetings with the representative of the European Union for dialogue between Kosovo and Serbia, Myroslav Lajcak, as well as a joint meeting in Brussels. 

The Deputy Prime Minister of Kosovo and the chief negotiator from Pristina, Besnik Bislimi, said the latest round of negotiations was a failure.  At the same time, Lajcak said that while there had been “no progress” towards normalizing relations, he remained optimistic that Kosovo and Serbia had made progress “on some other key issues” that would be discussed “in the coming weeks.”

The main contradiction between Belgrade and Pristina remains the Association of Serbian Municipalities (ASM).

The chief negotiator from Serbia, head of the Government Department for Kosovo and Metohija, Petar Petkovic, noted that Belgrade does not shy away from the obligations arising from the Agreement on the Path to Normalization of Relations (Ohrid Agreement), but Pristina must be the first to start forming the ASM.

Bislimi sees this demand by Serbia as a partial fulfillment of the agreement.  According to the representative from Pristina, the Ohrid Agreement must be implemented in full and without delay.

As is known, in February 2023, the leaders of Serbia and Kosovo reached an agreement on the path to normalization of relations by adopting the Ohrid Agreement. In March of the same year, the Implementation Annex was agreed.  However, these agreements were never signed due to the refusal by Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić.

 Since then, there has been no progress in the dialogue between Belgrade and Pristina. Over the past year, representatives of the parties have come to Brussels several times to participate in the EU-mediated dialogue, but these meetings did not fundamentally change the situation and did not lead it out of the “dead end”.