For nearly a decade, Prime Minister Edi Rama’s Socialist Party has not only steered the country through a myriad of post-communist challenges but has also steadily built a formidable institutional network. As the next electoral cycle looms, many thought Rama would be able to just barely secure another term. No political landscape is without its storms, but it seems like every main Albanian political party has had at least one major scandal in the lead-up to the 2025 elections. Is Albania finally at a genuine crossroads, as it hasn’t been in over the decade of Rama’s reign? Or is his victory still guaranteed?
How Edi Rama Strengthened His Political Grip Over a Decade
When you look back over the past ten years, it’s hard to miss how Rama’s leadership has reshaped Albanian politics. First, Rama’s government has introduced electoral reforms that reinforce the dominance of established parties, particularly the Socialist Party. The closed-list system gives party leaders control over candidate selection, limiting voter influence. Large parties benefit from institutional networks, state resources, and media control, while smaller parties struggle with funding and exposure. Changes like diaspora voting and electronic systems, though framed as modernization, favor well-organized parties with strong outreach. These reforms create a system that, while democratic in appearance, structurally preserves the ruling party’s grip on power. It’s a smart strategy—after all, every vote counts.
For many voters, Rama seems like the “stable” choice. In Albania, it’s common knowledge that when a new government official is elected, the first thing they’ll do is fire any subordinates affiliated with a different party and hire almost exclusively people “of their own”. In the current economic landscape, getting fired from a job can devastate an entire family. So, votes in Albanian politics are rarely based on political ideology, new policies citizens want to see implemented, or even the likeability of the candidates – it’s much more about ensuring the survival of yourself and your loved ones in the harsh economical landscape.
Having established this fact, you can only imagine the massive following Edi Rama and his Socialist Party have amassed and the amount of people he has directly and indirectly secured jobs for. In the upcoming 2025 elections, government workers and their families seem almost guaranteed to back Rama simply because he’s the one who provided them with their jobs. Whether they love him or hate him, these voters face a stark reality: a new leader likely means new faces, which immediately translates into losing their current positions.
This is to say nothing about Rama’s genuine supporters, which are by no means an insignificant amount of people. When you’ve been in power for as long as Rama has, you have to have had some significant chunk of the population backing you up all these years. Elderly citizens are especially prone to just voting in the same way they always have, and most indeed don’t keep up with the current political landscape. This is a big deal, because as Albanian youth continue to emigrate from the country in droves, the elderly hold more and more weight.
Sali Berisha’s House Arrest and Its Impact on His Supporters
Sali Berisha—once a towering figure in the opposition Democratic Party and a former prime minister—found himself confined to his residence under house arrest. The charges? Allegations tied to a controversial property deal scandal that hinted at the misuse of power for personal gain. Most Albanian citizens and political analysts know that Berisha is guilty of far more than what he was charged with. Having been able to get away with worse for so long, it was a shock to see him get even this “slap on the wrist” punishment.
The court’s decision to revoke his parliamentary immunity in December 2023 and the subsequent house arrest created a rallying point for his loyalists. For many months to come, protests and heated debates were held over Berisha’s house arrest. After his release on November 27, 2024, the natural result of his arrest was that he wasn’t able to gather as many supporters as he would have if he hadn’t been arrested, making him ill-prepared for the upcoming elections.
Ilir Meta’s Arrest Leaves the Opposition in Disarray
On October 21, 2024, Ilir Meta—the former President and head of the opposition Freedom Party—was arrested in Tirana following a five-year investigation spearheaded by the Special Structure Against Corruption and Organized Crime (SPAK). The charges against Meta – extensive money laundering schemes, deliberate misappropriation of state funds, and systematic abuse of power – are not exactly a shock to anyone. For a major political figure like Meta, this outcome was almost expected. Meta’s supporters denounced the arrest as politically motivated and even held protests in his name.
Without Meta at the helm and Berisha at such a disadvantage, the opposition struggles to rally a unified front. As voters weigh their options, the image of both these fractured and corrupt leaders could drive them towards the incumbent, who, despite his own controversies, now appears as the relatively more stable choice.
Erion Veliaj’s Corruption Charges Become a Liability for Rama
Just as the dust from Meta’s arrest was beginning to settle, another controversy emerged. On February 10th, 2025, Erion Veliaj – often heralded as a rising star and potential heir to Rama’s leadership – was arrested by SPAK with his wife Ajola Xoxa on serious charges related to corruption and money laundering. Authorities allege that the couple was involved in a scheme on at least ten separate occasions, siphoning approximately 1.1 million euros in public funds through various private companies and non-governmental organizations. The investigation has expanded to include several prominent businessmen, all suspected of manipulating public tenders and construction permits via financial channels controlled by Xoxa.
His arrest has now become a major political liability for Rama. During a livestream just a day after Veliaj’s arrest, Rama was seen hitting the table and cursing, before ending the stream. The public suspects this is because on Veliaj’s arrest. In other platforms, Rama claimed that Veliaj had been “taken from office without trial and locked in a cell,” leaving the capital “without a head.”
His tirade wasn’t limited to Veliaj alone—he also called Judge Erjon Bani, who approved the arrest, “a right-wing extremist”. However, this assertion stands in stark contrast to Judge Bani’s track record. In 2021, when defamation charges were brought against Veliaj by former deputy Grida Duma, Bani declared him not guilty. Similarly, in a 2022 case—where defamation and insults were at issue in a suit initiated by Erion Isufi, related to Lulzim Basha’s kin—Bani again ruled in favor of Veliaj, clearing him of all charges.
Rama’s continued backing of Erion Veliaj—despite mounting evidence and widespread belief in the mayor’s guilt —is more than a little distasteful. Veliaj, a prominent figure within Rama’s own party, has become a symbol of the endemic corruption that many voters say has tainted the ruling establishment.
By defending Veliaj, Rama is not only undermining the credibility of his administration but also alienating a growing number of voters who are desperate for accountability. It’s crystal clear that instead of addressing corruption within his own ranks, Rama is more worried about shielding his political allies.
The Natural Conclusion in a System Built to Preserve Power
Given the current political landscape, the 2025 Albanian elections still appear to be in Edi Rama’s favor, despite recent controversies. He has simply consolidated too much power through strategic institutional networks, electoral reforms that favor established parties, and a system where jobs are tied to political allegiance. This gives him a built-in voter base of government employees and their families as well as a myriad of loyal long-standing voters, who have a strong incentive to maintain the status quo despite the fact that true democracy isn’t just about stability; it’s about a vibrant, contested political arena where new voices can emerge.
Additionally, the opposition remains deeply fragmented. With Sali Berisha’s house arrest and Ilir Meta’s imprisonment, two of Rama’s biggest challengers are significantly weakened. While these events have stirred political unrest, they have not resulted in a strong enough unified opposition movement. Rama’s continued support for Erion Veliaj and attempts to discredit judicial authorities – despite serious corruption charges – reflects pretty badly on him. Yet, with Albania’s political landscape still heavily influenced by patronage and stability concerns, many voters ultimately see Rama as “the least risky” choice.
So, where does that leave Albania as it stands on the brink of the 2025 elections? One can’t help but wonder if the controversies and legal battles of recent years might ultimately serve as a catalyst for change. After all, history has a way of transforming crises into opportunities.
The current consensus says that the entrenched networks of power might just prove too resilient to overcome once again, ensuring that the familiar faces remain at the helm. While scandals may cost him some support, the opposition’s disarray and his well-established networks suggest that Rama remains the frontrunner. His victory may not be as effortless as before, but unless a dramatic shift occurs, he is still the most likely winner in 2025.
