Bosnia and Herzegovina is going through another crisis of statehood. The entity within BiH, the Republika Srpska under the leadership of Milorad Dodik, is once again trying to expand its powers and limit the jurisdiction of BiH’s central authorities on its territory.
The latest escalation is neither something new nor unexpected for this Balkan country. But the current geopolitical context forces us to look at the developments from a new angle and understand the emerging problems and threats.
Laws with a separate bias
On February 27, the People’s Assembly (parliament) of Republika Srpska adopted at a special session a number of laws that, in particular, prohibit the activities of institutions of Bosnia and Herzegovina on the RS territory.
The new legislation
• prohibit the work of the Court of BiH, the Prosecutor’s Office of BiH, the State Investigation and Protection Agency (SIPA), and the High Judicial and Prosecutorial Council of BiH in Republika Srpska,
• provide for the establishment of the High Judicial and Prosecutorial Council of Republika Srpska, which will appoint judges, prosecutors, and other judicial officials in Republika Srpska,
• introduce criminal liability for disrespect or failure to implement decisions of institutions or bodies of Republika Srpska.
In fact, this is a unilateral termination of the jurisdiction of the state of Bosnia and Herzegovina over a part of its territory, Republika Srpska.
Separately, the so-called “law on foreign agents” was passed, which is the Law on the Special Register and Transparency of the Work of Non-Profit Organizations. This legislation introduces strict controls over the civil sector of Republika Srpska, modeled on Russian legislation. The draft law was sharply criticized for being undemocratic by both local NGOs and European institutions.
On March 5, the President of Republika Srpska, Milorad Dodik, signed decrees, putting into force the laws adopted at the session of the National Assembly of Republika Srpska. The laws were immediately published in the Official Gazette of the Republika Srpska and are thus enforced.
Legislation as “retaliatory blow”
The adoption of a package of high-profile laws can be seen as a response by Republika Srpska authorities to Dodik’s court verdict as he was sentenced to a year in prison and a six-year ban from holding senior political positions by the Court of First Instance of Bosnia and Herzegovina on February 26. The President of Republika Srpska was accused of disrespecting the decisions of the High Representative, Christian Schmidt, who is considered illegitimate in Republika Srpska.
According to Dodik, the laws adopted on February 27 were only part of the first stage of a previously planned plan.
A few days before the verdict of the Court of BiH, Milorad Dodik told the Balkan office of the Russian state-run TV channel Russia Today, RT Balkan, about the intended actions in case the court in Sarajevo upholds charges against him. According to him, RS will proceed with a “two-stage” reaction.
“In the first stage, Republika Srpska will fight for the constitutional order in BiH. What we have in practice in BiH is not in the Constitution: no army, no armed forces of BiH, no SIPA, no intelligence service, no court, no prosecutor’s office, no indirect taxes, no multiple agencies, and no border guard service of BiH,” Dodik said. As follows from his words, Republika Srpska plans to return everything to the said level, and then adopt a law on withdrawal from the agreement on the joint armed forces of Bosnia and Herzegovina. If even this does not make Sarajevo agree with the Serbs’, if “it does not agree to return to the Constitution of Bosnia and Herzegovina,” “Republika Srpska will enter the second phase, which involves withdrawal from the Dayton Agreement,” the President of Republika Srpska said. At this second stage, Republika Srpska plans to appeal to Serbia, demanding that the agreement be signed on the confederation of Republika Srpska and Serbia, and later on a federation and monetary union with Serbia. The purpose of these actions is “so that we can organize our lives and not depend on the nonsense that we are seeing in Sarajevo,” Dodik told Russian media.
New cases and verdicts
On March 6, the day after Dodik signed the controversial laws, the Prosecutor’s Office of Bosnia and Herzegovina announced it was investigating the criminal offense of “undermining the constitutional order” in the country. Although the names of the suspects in the case were not formally made public, Dodik reported he had been summoned by the Prosecutor’s Office of BiH for questioning as a suspect in the case of undermining the constitutional order. He stated that he would ignore the move.
Also on March 6, the Constitutional Court of BiH received applications to review the constitutionality of laws adopted in Republika Srpska earlier.
Member of the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina Denis Bečirović, Speaker of the House of Representatives Denis Zvizdić, and Member of the Board of the House of Peoples of the Parliament of Bosnia and Herzegovina Kemal Ademović have filed a petition with the Constitutional Court of Bosnia and Herzegovina to review the constitutionality of the “anti-Dayton and anti-constitutional” laws of Republika Srpska. They stressed that “the brutal attacks on the Dayton Peace Agreement and the constitutional order of Bosnia and Herzegovina must stop” and that “attempts to undermine the independence, sovereignty, and territorial integrity of Bosnia and Herzegovina pose a direct threat to peace and stability in the country and region.”
On March 7, the Constitutional Court of Bosnia and Herzegovina adopted a temporary measure and suspended the implementation of the laws adopted by the People’s Assembly of Republika Srpska on February 27 and signed by the RS President on March 5.
In Banja Luka, the verdict was met with the utmost contempt. This was an expected outcome,because Republika Srpska had previously passed a law on the non-application of the decisions of the Constitutional Court of Bosnia and Herzegovina, since its main composition includes no Serbian judges.
“The decision and reasoning of the truncated Constitutional Court of Bosnia and Herzegovina irresistibly resemble the statement of the Politburo of the Communist Party of the USSR.
A naked political pamphlet.
…Not a word from the Constitution, not a word from the law,” Dodik wrote on the X network.
It is clear that the decisions of the Constitutional Court of Bosnia and Herzegovina will not be implemented in Republika Srpska.
Unexpected criticism
Dodik was expectedly supported by Serbia and Russia, and sharply criticized by High Representative Christian Schmidt and a number of European countries, including Germany. But one critical statement came as a complete surprise to RS and to Dodik personally.
Judging by the statements from the leaders of Republika Srpska during the election campaign in the U.S. and after Donald Trump’s victory, Banja Luka was confident that the 47th American president would become almost a friend of Serbs.
Dodik, who is under U.S. sanctions, took the change of power in the White House as a positive signal for RS and for himself personally.
On March 4, in an interview with RT Balkan, the RS president once again channeled hope for change. “If the Biden administration had stayed, we would have been buried here. We have suffered all these years because we believed that the opinion of the American establishment would change,” Dodik said, apparently hoping for an understanding with the new team in Washington.
However, on March 8, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio ruined these plans. He took on X to make the following statement: “The actions of Republika Srpska President Milorad Dodik undermine the institutions of Bosnia and Herzegovina and threaten its security and stability. Our nation encourages political leaders in Bosnia and Herzegovina to engage in constructive and responsible dialogue. We call on our partners in the region to join us in opposing this dangerous and destabilizing behavior.”
It seems that the U.S. does not want another hotbed of instability in another part of Europe and has already understood who the source of this threat is. And this is Mr Dodik.
But modern-day realities are such that this is Washington’s position as of March 8, 2025, and it is unclear whether it will remain the same. The actions and statements from representatives of the U.S. administration regarding foreign policy and relations with other nations over just a few weeks of the new team’s work in the White House have already stunned, and even shocked the world multiple times. The unexpected and shocking for many, quite loyal to Moscow position of Trump and his team during attempts to resolve the Russo-Ukrainian conflict made us expect changes in U.S. policy toward other regions. First of all, Americans are now expected to show greater respect for Russian interests and those of their partners in different parts of the world. This hypothetical geopolitical understanding between Washington and Moscow motivates the moderators of instability in the Western Balkans and increases the security risk for the region.
Hungarian factor
Against the backdrop of recent events in Bosnia and Herzegovina, EUFOR will temporarily boost its force. This is a proactive measure aimed at helping Bosnia and Herzegovina in the interest of all citizens, the EU military mission said in an official statement.
However, even these developments, which should have helped calm the situation, have caused anxiety in Sarajevo in the current geopolitical circumstances.
The fact is that one of the leading participants in the European Union military operation in BiH, EUFOR Althea, is Hungary. In recent years, Budapest has been pursuing an independent policy in the Western Balkans, which is not always consistent with that of the EU. In particular, Hungary is actively developing direct relations with Republika Srpska and its leadership. The steps taken in this direction in recent weeks have been simply unprecedented, causing quite a stir.
Hungarian Deputy Foreign Minister Levente Magyar visited Banja Luka in early March, a few days after Dodik’s sentencing, specifically to support the president of Republika Srpska, who, according to the Hungarian government official, is facing “political persecution”.
The Hungarian deputy minister said that what the West is doing to Serbs in Europe is wrong, mentioned Gavrilo Princip, and stressed that Republika Srpska and Dodik cannot be treated as enemies.
Separately, Magyar stressed Hungary’s willingness to participate in dialogue and finding solutions for the Balkan region as a close neighbor, unlike those who have something to decide but are thousands of kilometers away. “Whatever happens to you, we affect us, too. The time has passed when Hungary was just an observer of developments in the Balkans,” the Hungarian stressed during his visit to Republika Srpska.
It is possible that the visit, which caused outrage in Sarajevo, was not the only manifestation of solidarity with Dodik on the part of Viktor Orban’s government.
There was also the story of several dozen Hungarian police officers from a special unit being deployed in Republika Srpska late February, ostensibly for joint exercises with the local police force. According to the official version by Banja Luka, the Hungarian operatives were to take part in drills with their Serbian counterparts. According to unverified reports from Sarajevo, the goal was to transport Dodik to Hungary in the event of a threat to arrest the President of Republika Srpska immediately after the court verdict of February 26.
“At the end of February, a special unit of the Hungarian police was sent to Republika Srpska with a secret purpose: to facilitate the rapid extraction of Bosnian Serb leader Milorad Dodik to Hungary in the event that a Bosnian court rules to arrest him immediately,” regional media claimed, citing “several independent sources familiar with the operation”.
According to them, this did not happen for two reasons.
First, although Dodik was indeed sentenced to a prison term, he was not arrested, given the opportunity to appeal.
Second, the Hungarian effort was exposed in advance.
Official statements by Budapest officials regarding Republika Srpska and Milorad Dodik personally, as well as rumors of possible intervention by the Hungarian authorities with the intention of “extracting Dodik,” caused a storm of indignation in Sarajevo. The result was official appeals calling for the removal of the Hungarian EUFOR contingent from BiH.
It cannot be ruled out that Budapest overtly supported the Bosnian Serb leader, not only because Hungary decided to strengthen its presence in the region, directly influencing developments, based on its own interest. It is also possible that Orban, like Dodik, expected a change in the White House’s stance on the Western Balkans and Bosnia and Herzegovina in particular to be more loyal to the Serbs.
Predicted unpredictability
Currently, the hopes in both Banja Luka and Budapest for a more pro-Serbian course from the White House have not been justified.
In addition to the public statement by the head of the State Department criticizing the RS President, as Bosnian media claim, there were other, non-public signals from Washington. In particular, the U.S. leadership was allegedly indignant at the plans to extract Dodik to Hungary and unequivocally expressed its concern to the Hungarian authorities.
It could be expected that the current clear and unambiguous position of the American leadership regarding the inadmissibility of Dodik’s secessionist course will lead to a decrease in tension between RS and Sarajevo and will generally calm the situation in BiH.
After sharp criticism from the U.S. authorities, the leaders of the Bosnian Serbs, primarily the RS President, should reduce or even stop their activities aimed at severing ties between Republika Srpska and the central government of BiH.
Separately, the Hungarian authorities should review their policy towards Republika Srpska and its leadership, refusing to support Dodik, both overtly and covertly.
All this will happen if the American policy towards BiH, as declared by Marco Rubio, does not change in the near future. However, given all the steps and statements made by the Trump administration and members of his team, even the Secretary of State cannot guarantee the stability of the U.S. foreign policy in the current conditions.
