Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić’s efforts to maintain the existing balance between West and East have never looked more dramatic than in recent days. After the public invitation from Vladimir Putin to the BRICS summit in Russia’s Kazan, the Serbian leader is trying his best to stay true to his ability to stick to his favorite “East-West” foreign policy course. But the further this lingers, the more doubts arise whether he will be able to succeed this time.
Invitation
The topic of rapprochement between Serbia and the BRICS became particularly relevant last year. At that time, many comments and outlooks were issued on this topic in both Belgrade and Moscow, including directly opposite ones. Late last year, however, the situation was not too bright as Serbia did not apply to join the organization and neither did it even send its representatives to the BRICS summit in Johannesburg in August 2023.
This year, Russia, currently chairing BRICS, decided to fix things.
During a meeting with the Deputy Prime Minister of Serbia, Aleksandar Vulin, on the sidelines of the Eastern Economic Forum early September, Putin extended an invitation to Vučić, which the Russian media referred to as “historic”. “Convey my greetings to President Vučić. We are waiting for him at events within the framework of the BRICS leaders’ meeting in Kazan, in the format of ‘BRICS outreach’. We sent him an invitation. I hope Mr. President will accept it,” said the Russian president.
At first, Vučić responded rather vaguely, noting that he had scheduled meetings with foreign guests and negotiations on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly. Some media took that as a snub.
However, the Serbian president later clarified his stance.
“Some said I rejected something, and some – that I accepted something. They lied to each other all day. I said, we’ll see. I said there were visits scheduled, and after that I said we’ll see. We will make a decision on this on October 10 or 15, not earlier,” Vučić told journalists. The BRICS summit in Kazan is scheduled for October 22-24.
Vice Prime Minister Vulin also joined the explanatory campaign, stating that President Vučić had not rejected President Putin’s invitation to take part in the BRICS meetup. “Whether he goes or not will be decided in the already scheduled phone call with Putin,” he said.
Therefore, Belgrade postponed the solution to the complicated issue but in a month, Vučić will have to decide – in Moscow, apparently.
However, it is already possible to predict that any decision by the Serbian president regarding a trip to Kazan will have negative implications in the foreign policy context.
Neither yes nor no
If Vučić decides to attend the BRICS summit, it will be a clear marker that relations with Russia and the eastern vector of foreign policy in general are Serbia’s priority. The EU, which has recently made several statements condemning the contacts between Serbian high-ranking officials and the Russian leadership, will likely have to respond in one way or another, and not only in words. Conclusions that will be negative for Belgrade will be drawn not only in Brussels, but also in Berlin, Paris, and Washington…
If Vučić skips the event in Kazan – be it by openly refusing to come, “stretching” the celebration of the liberation of Belgrade for a few days, thus “not being able to make it”, or suddenly catching flu, as some experts foresee –the consequences are all too obvious. And Vladimir Putin has already clearly “hinted” at what they’ll be.
When the Russian president conveyed his invitation to his Serbian counterpart, he noted that “Russia plays a significant role in providing Serbia with energy,” doing so “on good, very good terms for Serbia.” However, he recalled, the Serbian-Russian gas supply contracts expire in March 2025.
The hint is more than clear – if the Serbian leadership ignores the invitation from the Russian leader, the conditions of gas supply will change for the worse. This will create not only economic, but also socio-political problems for Serbia.
The Vzglyad newspaper, seen in Serbia as the one affiliated with the Kremlin, describes Vučić’s possible “no” and its repercussions as follows:
“If he (Vučić – ed.) snubs the invitation now, a spat is inevitable, and it will not even be between Moscow and Belgrade, but within Serbia, too. Gas prices, relations with Russia, China’s aid, the summit involving one third of the globe – this is too critical for the Serbs not to shower criticism on Vučić over jeopardizing this all.”
That is, Moscow’s signal to Belgrade is clear – should the Serbian president decide not to accept Putin’s invitation, he will face problems, not only with Russia, not only with the BRICS nations, but, first of all, domestically.
Paid-for survey
In Moscow, apparently, officials believe a significant part of the Serbs is in favor of the rapprochement with Russia and the BRICS countries rather than with the EU and the West in general.
But what is this confidence based on?
First, there are indeed political forces in Serbia that promote the idea of the country joining the BRICS.
For example, in August 2023, two then lawmakers with the Movement of Socialists founded by Aleksandar Vulin submitted to Parliament a draft resolution on Serbia’s accession to BRICS. The draft states that the foreign policy of the “collective West” often contradicts Serbia’s “vital state and national interests” while “the so-called European path of Serbia sees an alternative in BRICS as the most relevant global economic and political integration process.” However, it is emphasized that the start of the process of joining BRICS will not imply the end of European integration.
According to the draft resolution, the final decision on Serbia’s accession to the BRICS should be taken by citizens in a referendum.
Relying on public opinion is obviously a component of the general spin-doctored plan to “push” Serbia’s leadership, specifically Vučić, to take a positive decision on joining the BRICS.
Shortly after the draft resolution was filed with parliament, a survey was published by the New Serbian Political Opinion, NSPM, showing that Serbs are more in favor of rapprochement with BRICS than joining the EU.
According to the NSPM research, to the question “Do you support Serbia’s accession to the EU?” 20.8% of respondents said “yes, fully”, 20.9% – “rather yes than no”, and to the question “Do you support strengthening ties with the BRICS countries (Russia, China, India, and Brazil…)?” 38.3% said “yes, fully” and 33.1% – “rather yes than no”. (Research period: September 20-28, 2023, region: Serbia without KiM, method – phone survey, number of respondents: 1,100).
Similar surveys covering 1,000 respondents were run in February and May 2024. Publishing the results of the poll in June, the New Serbian Political Opinion outlet said it had been commissioned by RT Balkan, the Balkan branch of the Russian state-owned media agency, sanctioned by the EU.
RT Balkan’s poll said 45.4% of respondents are positive that the European path cannot be interrupted and that European integration should not be abandoned. When asked whether they believe that the BRICS, led by Russia and China, can serve as a foreign policy support for Serbia instead of the EU, 46.6% of respondents answered affirmatively.
These polls are another factor of confidence the Russians have about the Serbs standing against dropping BRICS cooperation or worsening relations with Russia.
That the research is questionable in terms of objectivity is irrelevant to the goals pursued by those who commissioned it. Based on the data derived from such surveys, BRICS lobbyists will likely try to convince experts, politicians, and the country’s leadership that the eastern foreign policy vector is critical from the point of view of public sentiment as “many citizens support rapprochement with BRICS” so the authorities “cannot ignore this public demand”.
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It seems Moscow has decided to exert pressure on Belgrade in various ways, forcing the Serbian leadership to choose between East and West. Vucic likely believes his political gymnastics will remain successful but it seems that his political doctrine of “sitting on two chairs” has exhausted itself.
