Global geopolitical turbulence, the destruction of stable international partnerships, and increasing security challenges facing Europe, primarily related to Russian aggression against Ukraine, are affecting the geopolitically sensitive Western Balkans. A sense of insecurity and efforts to ensure own security independently are becoming increasingly prevalent in the region. This leads to the fragmentation of the security landscape of the Western Balkans and the formation of not yet hostile, but already antagonistic camps (associations).
In these conditions, certain forces, including external actors, interested in even greater destabilization, get extraordinary opportunities to expand their influence and intensify malign activities.
Tirana Declaration
On March 18, the Ministers of Defense of Albania, Kosovo, and Croatia (Pirro Vengu, Eyup Makedonci, and Ivan Anušić), signed in Tirana the Declaration on a Military Alliance. As noted, the parties aim to cooperate in building up defense capabilities and defense industry, increasing interoperability between the armed forces of the three nations through joint exercises and exchange of military experience, countering hybrid threats, and supporting Kosovo’s Euro-Atlantic and regional defense integration.
The signatories emphasized that this trilateral cooperation is based on the spirit of friendship and commitment to good neighborly relations, peace, and security. It was emphasized that the agreement is not intended to create threats to any external party, being an additional step towards supporting regional stability. The Declaration emphasizes the importance of a joint response to security challenges, hybrid threats, and other risks to the region.
“We have a common assessment of threats in a fragile security environment,” Minister Vengu emphasized.
Minister Makedonci stressed that “the purpose of this cooperation is not to threaten anyone, it is a about sending a message to those who intend to threaten the region”, “a message to every country that aims to destabilize that we are together”. “Together with Albania and Croatia, Kosovo is stronger, the region is safer, and peace is more sustainable”, he stressed.
“The three states will be prepared to face future security challenges in Southeastern Europe”, Anušić noted.
According to the Croatian minister, there is a possibility that Bulgaria will also join the trilateral military alliance in the future.
Belgrade’s outrage
In a statement published late on the evening of March 18, the Serbian Foreign Ministry called out the Declaration signed in Tirana as “provocation” and a step that undermines regional stability. A similar opinion was expressed by both the Serbian defense chief and the country’s president. Belgrade was particularly outraged by the fact that “so-called Kosovo” was allowed to sign the document.
Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić also stated that the signing of the Declaration was in “violation of the 1996 Subregional Arms Control Agreement”.
Croatian Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Defense Anušić, commenting on the statements of Serbian senior officials, noted: “The time has passed when Croatia asked Belgrade what it is allowed to do and how it should do it, and this will never happen again. We have been an independent state for 35 years, we have gone through five years of aggression and policies that spread such a narrative. Croatia has the right to sign memoranda. Kosovo is a friendly nation that we have recognized, and other countries will join this Memorandum. The document does not mention Serbia, aggression, or any activity that could threaten anyone, including Serbia.”
Prime Minister Andrej Plenković said Croatia, Albania, and Kosovo had signed the Declaration based on their own decisions and assessments, adding that they don’t need to ask anyone about it, neither Serbia nor NATO. “This is a memorandum of joint cooperation, there is no hostile nature in it,” Plenković said.
In turn, experts noted that the assessment by the president of Serbia regarding the contradiction between the Declaration of Albania, Kosovo, and Croatia and the 1996 Agreement is plainly incorrect. First of all, that’s because due to the different signatories and different subject matter of both documents.
The Agreement on Subregional Arms Control was signed on June 14, 1996 in Florence as part of the Dayton Agreements, based on Annex 1B – Article IV, which provided the basis for the establishment of an arms control regime between the Republic of Croatia, the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia in Bosnia and Herzegovina with the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina and the Republika Srpska. The declaration of independence of Montenegro changed the number of parties to the Agreement to four – Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Montenegro and Serbia.
The Subregional Arms Control Agreement establishes a system of measures and procedures for reducing the number of weapons to an agreed level. The document contains specific numerical limitations for five categories of weapons (tanks, armored fighting vehicles, artillery (75mm and above), warplanes and attack helicopters); provisions on a monitoring mechanism through inspections, information exchange and verification. The rights and obligations arising from the Agreement are legally binding.
Albania never signed the Subregional Arms Control Agreement, and neither was it part of the Dayton Peace Process whatsoever, so by definition, it cannot violate the agreements of almost 30 years ago.
Kosovo was considered part of Serbia’s territory even by the Kosovars themselves 29 years ago (independence was declared only in 2008).
Serbia’s claims against Croatia raise another question, which is more generalized: can the Declaration signed in Tirana violate the Agreement on the number of military equipment units? Experts say it can’t because Albania, Kosovo and Croatia actually signed a political memorandum, a kind of declaration of intent, which contains no specific numbers regarding the production or purchase of tanks, armored vehicles, artillery, warplanes and helicopters.
As for Belgrade’s indignation over the signing of the Tirana Declaration by the “Republic of Kosovo” as a separate state, everything is simple here – Croatia and Albania recognized Kosovo, and from the point of view of these two governments, cooperation is fully within the legal framework.
The Serbian-Hungarian plan
The Serbian leadership, despite all the assurances from the signatories of the “Declaration of the Three” (mainly Croatia) of the absence of aggressive intentions towards any external parties, interpreted the union between Zagreb, Tirana, and Pristina as an aggressive bloc specifically targeting Belgrade. “They started an arms race in our region, this is a difficult situation for us, of course, it isn’t easy, but we understood their message. And we will preserve our country, deter them ,and always successfully defend it from any potential aggressor, even such a powerful one,” Vučić emphasized.
Immediately after the signing of the declaration in Tirana, the Serbian president discussed it with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte and leaders of the European Union, but, “other than shoulder shrugs and ‘oh well, it happened’, I could not expect or get any other response.” Belgrade used the lack of condemnation from Brussels towards the signatories of the Tirana Declaration to justify its further steps. Literally a few days later, the pro-government media in Serbia reported that Vučić and Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán had already entered into “serious negotiations on a military alliance between the two countries,” which was Serbia’s response to the Declaration on a Military Alliance signed in Tirana by Croatia, Albania, and “the so-called Kosovo.” On April 1, in Belgrade, in the presence of President Aleksandar Vučić, Serbian Defense Minister Bratislav Gašić and Hungarian Defense Minister Kristof Szalay-Bobrovniczky signed the Bilateral Military Cooperation Plan of the two ministries for 2025. The document implements and specifies the Agreement signed in 2023 between the Government of the Republic of Serbia and the Government of Hungary on Strengthening Strategic Cooperation in the Field of Defense.
“This marks a continuation of our very important cooperation. Strategic cooperation between Serbia and Hungary in the field of defense is one of the most important aspects of our comprehensive strategic cooperation. Of all the countries in the region, Serbia has the most developed and intensive defense cooperation with Hungary in terms of the number and importance of joint activities,” Vučić said after the signing. He stressed that the key elements of these relations include inter-military cooperation, which is reflected in the conduct of bilateral and multinational exercises, as well as military-technical cooperation in arms procurement. Vučić also expressed belief that the agreements on joint activities will lead to further rapprochement and creation of a military alliance or union between Serbia and Hungary.
Hungarian Defense Minister Szalay-Bobrovniczky emphasized that the Bilateral Military Cooperation Plan has raised cooperation between the two countries to an even higher level, which will contribute to strengthening peace and stability in the Western Balkans.
On April 3, on the sidelines of a regional conference in Sofia, Vučić presented his arguments in favor of developing military cooperation between Serbia and Hungary, emphasizing not so much a direct response to the actions of Croatia, Albania, and Kosovo but an attempt to counter security risks. This is not about “political countermeasures,” but about “a deep and comprehensive attempt to respond to security challenges,” he noted. The main thing that concerns Belgrade today is Pristina’s disrespect for the Brussels agreement and the situation in Republika Srpska, according to the Serbian president.
In other words, Serbia, together with Hungary, or with the latter’s help, is going to defend its interests both in the Kosovo settlement process and in resolving the ongoing crisis in Bosnia and Herzegovina.
A pessimistic outlook
The Serbian president is in the right that the document signed on April 1 of this year cannot be viewed solely as a response to the Declaration of Albania, Kosovo, and Croatia. The agreement between the Government of the Republic of Serbia and the Government of Hungary on strengthening strategic cooperation in the field of defense, which provides for the adoption of Annual Cooperation Plans with a list of joint measures in the defense field, has been in effect for two years. Therefore, objectively speaking, it’s the alliance of Tirana, Pristina, and Zagreb that can rather be considered a response to the strategic defense partnership between Belgrade and Budapest.
Another aspect that cannot be ignored, while remaining “behind the scenes”, is the “shadow of Russia” behind the military alliance of Serbia and Hungary. Serbian and Hungarian leaders keep their pro-Russian sentiments in the open, expressing pride over their friendship with Moscow. And, if in the case of NATO ally Hungary this is about Orban’s geopolitical game and attempts to obtain financial and economic benefits, in the case of Serbia there is also active cooperation with Russia in the military area.
It is worth recalling that since 2013 Serbia has officially had observer status in the Parliamentary Assembly of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO PA), that is, in the military bloc conceived by Russia. That status remains valid today, and contacts at the level of the Serbian Parliament – CSTO Parliamentary Assembly are actively ongoing. That’s besides constant interaction between the Deputy Prime Minister of Serbia, Aleksandar Vulin, and Russia’s security chiefs.
The development of cooperation between Belgrade and Budapest in the military field will not only create favorable conditions for the promotion of Serbian interests across the region, but will also become an opportunity to strengthen Russia’s indirect presence in Southeastern Europe. With the Hungarian contingent present in two regional peacekeeping military missions – the European Union’s EUFOR Althea in Bosnia and Herzegovina and the NATO-led, KFOR in Kosovo – Belgrade and Moscow can significantly increase their influence on developments in the Western Balkans.
There is a trend in the region to underestimate the existing threats. In particular, it is believed that the announced regional military alliances are merely “paper tigers”, and that the destabilizing potential of external actors remains very limited. However, the weakening of unity within NATO and the West in general amid the deterioration of the security situation in Europe, primarily due to the lack of a just and lasting peace arrangement for Ukraine, give no grounds for an optimistic outlook. Against the background of more emerging global events, the disintegration of the common security field of the Western Balkans into separate antagonistic fragments and the activation of internal and external destructive forces in the current realities can only imply the region’s drift towards a less secure and less stable situation.
