On July 12, the High Court in Podgorica acquitted all those complicit in the coup d’état case of 2016, effectively walking back the claim that the attempted violent toppling of power in Montenegro, organized by Russian intelligence assets eight years ago, had taken place in the first place.
Sentence
Those acquitted include:
• Russian nationals Eduard Shishmakov and Vladimir Popov (who were referred to as Russian operatives),
• leaders of the former Democratic Front, current leaders of the coalition “For the Future of Montenegro”, Parliament Speaker Andrija Mandic, and MP Milan Knezevic (known for their pro-Russian stance),
• the retired head of Serbia’s Gendarmerie Bratislav Dikic,
• and several more citizens of Serbia and Montenegro.
They were accused of setting up a criminal organization aiming for the violent seizure of power on the day of the 2016 parliamentary election in order to prevent the country from joining NATO. The culprits allegedly planned to stage riots, seize the parliament HQ, and assassinate the then prime minister of the country, Milo Djukanovic. The inquiry claimed the Russians had masterminded the putsch while and local pro-Russian politicians acted as executors and facilitators. In the first verdict handed down in the case in 2019, all suspects were found guilty and sentenced to a total of 70 years in prison. The verdict was overturned three years ago in the Court of Appeal and a new trial was launched.
The new verdict in the case was issued on July 12, 2024, by a panel of judges headed by Zoran Radovic. “There was no evidence of the defendants’ guilt in the crimes they were charged with, therefore they were acquitted,” Radovic noted, explaining the verdict. In order to declare someone guilty, there must be certainty in terms of facts, “and it wasn’t there,” he noted.
The verdict is not final as the special prosecutor’s office may appeal the verdict of the High Court. But the fact that the court session on July 12 was completely ignored by special prosecutors demonstrates the lack of interest of the prosecution in defending its previous accusations, making the prospects of reviewing the acquittal verdict rather doubtful.
Coup d’état vs “Coup d’état”
The Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS), which was in power in Montenegro in 2016, as well as from the moment the nation achieved independence and until 2020, expectedly criticized the July 12 verdict. In its statement, the DPS emphasized that the judgment, according to which all the accused in the coup d’état case were acquitted, demonstrates that the country’s judiciary has lost the contours of independence, serving as an “extended arm of the government”, and that rulings are handed down beyond the courtroom – in circles close to the centers of political influence outside the country.
Milos Nikolic, the spokesman for the DPS, said that Judge Zoran Radovic with his verdict “betrayed the national interests of Montenegro and destroyed the legal system in an unprecedented manner.” “After his verdict, Montenegro’s judicial system ceased to exist,” Nikolic wrote on social media.
According to the head of the DPS, Daniel Zivkovic, the judicial system was exploited to fight against the state of Montenegro. “We have legitimized treason, selling out national interests,” he said. The Democratic Party of Socialists is currently demanding that a parliamentary probe be launched into the coup d’état case, focusing on all the circumstances surrounding the acquittal. “We will demand that a parliamentary investigation be initiated into the coup d’état in order to find out all the circumstances of this case,” Zivkovic said.
The idea was supported by some other opposition parties, but not only them.
The “Coalition for the Future of Montenegro” (ZBCG) led by Mandic and Knezevic, which is now part of the ruling majority, supported the initiative to open a parliamentary investigation into the “coup d’état” process, which the party considers to be falsified from start to finish. ZBCG’s goal is to prosecute those they believe falsified the case. “The author of this criminal indictment, Milo Djukanovic, is certainly the first one to be put in prison after the investigation committee hearing,” the party said in a statement.
It is clear that the ZBCG positions its desire to hold its political opponents to account as a desire for justice and a struggle for the rule of law. However, their opponents are sure that it is about revenge and the desire to finish once and for all the country’s former top political force, Djukanovic’s Democratic Party of Socialists, and Djukanovic himself, as a political figure who led Montenegro to independence and NATO membership.
What’s next?
No matter how the current developments in Montenegro are assessed, one thing is obvious – if the verdict of July 12 remains in place, it will completely change the the country’s domestic political balance and its geopolitical course. Also, it will significantly affect the positions of other actors in the region and the foreign policy vector of the further development of Montenegro and all of the Western Balkans.
The most these transformations can lead to is the transformation of Podgorica into Belgrade’s satellite (including, in relation to Kosovo) and Moscow’s “Trojan horse” in NATO or the country’s withdrawal from NATO. The European integration may continue – but in line with the Serbian scenario. That is, without aligning with the EU foreign policy and security policies, including on the issue of Russia sanctions, without direct and open support of Ukraine, and with building up relations with Russia (and China).
Russian propaganda media are already spreading the narrative that the acquittal in the coup d’état case “may lead to a revision of Montenegro’s pro-Western line, which was taken up against the will of the Montenegrin people by the country’s former leadership led by ex-president Milo Djukanovic in 2016.”
The West currently refrains from dramatization.
The Embassy of the United States in Podgorica commented to journalists that it was a verdict of the first instance court, therefore, there is a possibility of appeal.
Europe is trying to keep calm and generally distance itself from the process.
But it is obvious that the implications of the July 12 court ruling – if it remains in place – will directly affect Western interests and presence in the region.
The West’s authority will be undermined as the actual influence of Washington, London, and Brussels on the processes in the region will drastically decrease. At the same time, the influence and presence of Moscow in all the Western Balkans will skyrocket, and all pro-Russian forces in the region will also strengthen their positions.
In fact, it was the Kremlin that became the main triumphant after the July 12 verdict, and if it is not confronted with effective opposition, it will be able to quickly build up its success.
