The Republic of Kosovo on the Eve of Parliamentary Elections – Orhan Çeku

Introduction

Since 2008, Kosovo, formerly part of the socialist federation of Yugoslavia, has been an independent state, internationally recognized by more than 100 UN members. The creation of the new state was made possible following a political process of negotiations, mediated and authorized by the UN, which produced the Ahtisaari Plan. According to this plan, supported by the US and most EU countries, on 17 February 2008, representatives of the Assembly of Kosovo declared Kosovo an independent and sovereign state. The dialogue process was preceded by international administration of the United Nations Mission known as the UNMIK. The foundations of economic recovery were laid and democratic institutions were built under the auspices of UNMIK and with the participation of political representatives in Kosovo. Part of these developments was building an electoral system, based on the best democratic practices. Since 2001, eight legal electoral processes have been held in Kosovo. Being one of the main segments of democracy, in Kosovo, free parliamentary elections represent a dimension of the political maturity of various political parties and movements in the country. The parliamentary elections of the 9^th of February, for the Republic of Kosovo, represent an important political momentum, as a process that carries great importance for the future of the country and serves as a continuous reflection of the state to strengthen democracy, its institutions and the rule of law. The new government will face a series of challenges, which affect fundamental areas of the state and the citizens of the country, such as: economic growth, the rule of law, security and the process of dialogue with Serbia facilitated by the EU, as well as the Euro-Atlantic integration. An important part of integrations will be membership to international organizations, such as the Council of Europe, Interpol, and all the way to the UN and NATO, as well as the process of approximation with the EU. The new government will also face international pressure to reach binding political agreements with Serbia. The open issues with Serbia, the conflict in Ukraine and Russia’s efforts to influence the Western Balkans are important challenges which must be clearly addressed by the new government. These issues make NATO’s presence in Kosovo indispensable. 

Parliamentary Elections of the 9^th of February 2025

On 9^th of February, the citizens of Kosovo will head to the ballot boxes to elect their representatives in the legislative institution – the Assembly of Kosovo. Given the dynamics of political developments in recent years, these elections will be very important for the future of the country. On the eve of parliamentary elections, Kosovo has been experiencing a high political dynamic, with the main parties engaging in a fierce political competition to win the support of citizens. The Central Election Commission (CEC) has made the necessary preparations for the organization of these elections. In this respect, CEC has approved the electoral list of citizens with the right to vote. According to data from this list, the number of Kosovo citizens with the right to vote in this electoral process is: 2,075,868 voters. According to the CEC, the number of citizens with the right to vote at polling stations in the Republic of Kosovo is 1,970,944 voters, while the number of citizens who have registered to vote outside Kosovo is 104,924 voters. The number of voters registered outside the country reflects the reality of Kosovar society, as a large number of the citizens of the country have emigrated to Western European countries. From the list of voters approved by the CEC, discrepancies have been observed between the population’s real figures and citizens with the right to vote. This is due to the fact that according to preliminary data published by the Kosovo Agency of Statistics in 2024, the resident population in Kosovo is 1,586,659. The discrepancy between the voting list of citizens with the right to vote and the general population in the country affects the calculation of the correct percentage of voters in the elections. According to the CEC, in the general parliamentary elections in 2021, out of the approved voters’ list of 1,794,862 – 903,379 voters or 48.78% – have voted. In the parliamentary elections of 9^th of February 2025, no more than 800,000 voters are expected to vote, which automatically reduces the overall percentage.

During these elections, a strong competition is expected to be between the opposition parties PDK, LDK, AAK+NISMA to win votes to the detriment of the main political movement in the country, Lëvizja Vetëvendosje (the Self-Determination Movement) (LVV) the leader of which is Albin Kurti who is also the current Prime Minister of Kosovo. The latter party, in the last elections (2021), won 50.280%, which makes it the first political party in the history of parliamentary democracy in Kosovo to win more than 50% of the elections. The parliamentary majority led by the LVV, for the first time since the declaration of independence, has completed the full four-year constitutional mandate (2021-2025). The main political party in the country, the Self-Determination Movement (LVV), which is led by the charismatic leader, the current Prime Minister, Albin Kurti, aims for a new mandate, focusing on the reforms initiated in the country in order to extend sovereignty throughout the territory of Kosovo and to strengthen the security and defence bodies and the fight against corruption. The LVV did not need a governing coalition with the traditional opposition parties in Kosovo. The government was in coalition with the members of Parliament of the non-majority minorities (Turks, Bosniaks, Roma, Ashkali, Egyptians and Gorani), who are guaranteed 10 seats in the Assembly of Kosovo according to the Constitution. In the elections of 9^th of February, the LVV presented a slogan “Cep me Cep”, (from one end to the other) an ambiguous phrase that wants to show the extension of sovereignty throughout the country and the new victory with more than 50% of the votes.

On the other hand, the Democratic Party of Kosovo (PDK), founded by former KLA leaders in 1999 and now led by former rap singer, Memli Krasniqi, as an endeavour to reform the party, has been trying restore the trust of the electorate by offering alternatives in economic and social policies. The PDK, which achieved its highest result in 2007 (34.3%) and led by the leader of the KLA political directorate, Hashim Thaçi, who led the government for two terms and was elected President of the country during the third term, has remained in opposition since 2019. Changes in its leadership and accusations of war crimes against former President, Thaçi and Speaker of the Assembly, Kadri Veseli, have put the party, which is identified with the liberation war, in an unfavourable situation. In the 2021 elections, it came out as the second largest party in the country with 17.009%. In the 9^th of February elections, this party proposed former Minister of Finance and the current Mayor of Mitrovica, Bedri Hamza for prime minister of the country. Their slogan in these elections is “Ma mirë”, (Better) as if to show that under their governance, Kosovo will be better.

Another important party that has gone through a political transition and ups and downs is the Democratic League of Kosovo (LDK). LDK, which was founded in 1989 as a political movement in the context of the changes which have been taking place in the former Yugoslavia, laid the foundations for pluralistic democracy in Kosovo in the 90s. Led by the pacifist leader, Ibrahim Rugova, LDK until 2007, was the main political force in the country. After the death of President Rugova in 2006, the LDK split into two parties and lost the importance it once had. Under the leadership of the current leader, Lumir Abdixhiku, the LDK is promoting a platform focused on economic development and European integration, premises influenced by its right-wing orientation. In the 2021 elections, it suffered the biggest decline since its foundation, winning only 12.731%.

The other important party in the country is the Alliance for the Future of Kosovo (AAK), founded in 2000 by one of the well-known former KLA leaders, Ramush Haradinaj. The leader of AAK, Haradinaj, with support ranging from 7-11%, has managed to be elected prime minister of the country for two times (2004-2005 in coalition with former President, Rugova and 2017-2019 in coalition with the PDK). For the elections to be held on 9^th of February 2025, AAK has formed a coalition with Social Democratic Initiative, also led by a well-known former KLA commander, Fatmir Limaj. Mr. Limaj split from the PDK and formed his own political party in 2013. AAK, together with Social Democratic Initiative, have reached a coalition agreement with the Intellectual Forum E30, a political grouping of university professors in the country, and with the Conservative Party. This coalition, through the main slogan “Direkt në NATO” (Straight to NATO), aims to increase its influence in the elections, in the policy-making in Kosovo, focusing on security and regional development issues. Part of the political competition is also the “Koalicioni për Familjen”, (Coalition for the Family) which aims to reach the 5% electoral threshold necessary to become a parliamentary party. The political programme of this coalition is the preservation of traditional family values.

On the other hand, the parties of minority communities aim to assume the seats guaranteed by the Constitution. In this context, “Srpska Lista” (Serbian List) supported by official Belgrade remains the main political force of the Kosovo Serbs.

Political Environment and Security Situation

During the four-year rule of LVV, the political environment has been quite polarized with the opposition’s attacks on the Government and on the latter’s accusations against the former ruling parties. During the four-year rule of LVV, it managed to eliminate parallel Serbian structures in the northern part of Kosovo through well-organized actions by the special units of the Kosovo Police. This is also considered the greatest achievement during the four-year rule of this government. Such actions by the Police were in some instances criticized by the international community accredited in the country, through the Quint ambassadors (USA, Great Britain, France, Germany and Italy). These countries and the EU demanded that a constructive dialogue be conducted between Prishtina and Belgrade on all open issues and no unilateral actions be taken by the Government of Kosovo. On the other hand, Belgrade showed no readiness to implement the Brussels Fundamental Agreement (27 February 2023) and the Implementation Annex to the Agreement, known as the Ohrid Agreement (18 March 2023). The government was also criticized by a number of domestic analysts and journalists for continuous pressure on the media and the judicial system. Kurti government was not able to influence economic growth, but based on its left-directed social programme, it distributed financial assistance to various categories of citizens (pensioners, children up to the age of 16 and students).

The security situation in Kosovo remains uncertain, primarily as a result of Serbia’s territorial claims and the financing of parallel structures by the latter in Kosovo. The terrorist attack in the village of Banjska (24 September 2023) is the best proof of the fragile situation with a tendency to deteriorate. NATO’s presence in the service of peace and security for Kosovo and the region is essential.

Conclusion  

The elections to be held on 9^th of February 2025 are crucial for Kosovo’s political future, with challenges and opportunities that require commitment and vision from all participating parties.

Although the opposition has criticized the four-year rule of Prime Minister, Kurti, the lack of strong leadership and a clear platform could affect their electoral performance. On the other hand, Kurti’s LVV aims to capitalize on the reforms initiated, especially with the extension of sovereignty to the northern part of Kosovo, however, the challenges of a low reputation in foreign policy and the low level of economic development could affect public perception and a drastic decline in votes. The election results remain unpredictable, with post-election coalitions possibility, given that this time the LVV is not expected to repeat the result of the previous four-year period. Creating post-election coalitions will be a challenge, given the political divergences and personal grudges of the leaders of the main political parties in the country. Some of the other challenges the next Government will face are:

• Continuation of the dialogue process with Serbia, which remains a sensitive issue, with expectations to advance in the normalization of relations between the two countries. In this context, expectations from the Trump Administration are high.
• Sustainable economic growth and job creation are priorities for all parties, given the high level of unemployment and the emigration of citizens.
• The process of membership in international organizations and European Integration. Membership in organizations such as: The Council of Europe, OSCE, NATO, but also the acceleration of the EU integration process is another common objective, with a focus on fulfilling the required criteria.

The articles published in the “Opinions” column reflect the personal opinion of the author and may not coincide with the position of the Center