Europe is anxious in anticipation of a sharp increase in threats to the continent’s security after the start of direct negotiations between the U.S. and Russia on ending the war in Ukraine. Not only Ukrainians, but also Europeans, who were the very first allies of the Americans throughout the entire period after World War II, found themselves on the sidelines of the negotiation process. As a result of sharp, even shocking changes in the policy pursued by the United States, the leader of the Euro-Atlantic community and Europe’s largest security partner, the world, and, above all, the European security system, found itself facing inevitable changes. These changes could not only disrupt the balance of power on the European continent, but also completely undermine old alliances, destroy existing agreements, and threaten the future of Europe, putting it in limbo.
When during the Russian Revolution of 1917, American journalist John Reed wrote a story about what he witnessed, he called it “Ten Days That Shook the World.” But for Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin, 10 days is too long. They shook up the world in a week, wrote BBC Russia editor Steve Rosenberg the day after the U.S. and Russian delegations met in Riyadh.
The question of further U.S. involvement in resolving Europe’s security problems is causing considerable concern in European capitals. It is clear that the hottest topics are the war in Ukraine, agreements on the cessation of hostilities, the role of the Europeans in the negotiation process, security guarantees for Kyiv and NATO’s eastern flank. But inextricably linked to the Ukrainian issue and U.S.-European relations in the new reality are also such topics as the future of NATO and the preservation of the U.S. military presence in Europe, including in the Western Balkans.
According to BILD, Western security services and politicians fear that the talks that began in Riyadh could lead to the withdrawal of U.S. troops from part of Europe.
Admiral Giuseppe Cavo Dragone, chairman of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s Military Committee, predicted the situation on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference that the United States would likely remain committed to NATO, although it could reduce its troop presence in Europe as Washington’s priorities shift to the Indo-Pacific region. The United States will not withdraw from NATO he said, while noting that pulling some of the 100,000 troops stationed in Europe could be on the agenda because of “some commitments that the United States has far away in the Pacific.” “I don’t think there will be a huge number of Americans withdrawn from Europe,” he added. Putin wants NATO troops withdrawn from the entire former Soviet empire. European officials believe Trump is likely to agree to withdraw U.S. troops from the Baltic States and possibly further west, the Financial Times reported. An Eastern European security official told BILD: “According to our information, this is Putin’s demand by 2021, that is, the withdrawal of U.S. troops from all NATO member states that joined the alliance after 1990.” Trump has not yet confirmed that the United States plans to withdraw its troops from Europe and has said that this is not currently under discussion. During a press conference at Mar-a-Lago on February 18, the U.S. president was asked if he was prepared to withdraw U.S. troops from Europe as part of a peace deal with Russian leader Vladimir Putin. In response, Trump said that “nobody has asked me to do that” and that he doesn’t think we would have and want do that.
However, experts are sure that if not immediately, then a bit later the American military contingent in Europe will be reduced.
The latest news from Washington confirms the realism of this outlook.
The Washington Post, citing a relevant document and officials familiar with the situation, claims that U.S. Defense Secretary Peter Hegseth has instructed the American military command to draw up a plan to reduce the defense budget by 8% each year over the next five years.
The list of priority areas whose funding must be maintained includes the Indo-Pacific and Northern Commands, while the European Command is not mentioned among the priorities.
As per BILD, the reduction of the American military presence in Europe will not only affect the base in Ramstein, Germany, and air bases in the UK. The rest of Europe must brace for profound changes, too. In particular, for the possible withdrawal of U.S. troops from Kosovo.
As the main contributor to NATO’s mission in Kosovo, KFOR, the United States plays a crucial role in maintaining security in the region. Camp Bondsteel in southeastern Kosovo is the largest American base in the region and, according to media reports, the largest and most expensive foreign military base the United States has set up in Europe since the Vietnam War.
American officials have not yet confirmed the end of their participation in KFOR, but the adjustment of geopolitical priorities, complex agreements with Moscow, and the Pentagon’s reduction in spending on European security could lead, if not to the end, then to a significant reduction in the United States’ contribution to NATO’s mission in Kosovo.
A NATO official, commenting on BILD’s information about the possible withdrawal of U.S. troops from Kosovo at journalists’ request, stressed that the United States continues to play a fundamental role in KFOR, and that their contribution currently amounts to more than 600 troops. According to the official, the American side declared its commitment to the North Atlantic Alliance, including the U.S. presence in Europe, and emphasized that NATO’s deterrence and defense must remain strong. But at the same time, the official recalled that the United States has clearly stated that the Allies must do more, investing even more to support common security.
If the new policy of the White House and the Pentagon leads to a significant reduction in the American presence in the Western Balkans, this will mean a deterioration in the security situation in the region.
BILD calls such a development a “terrible scenario.” “Then the European allies would be left alone in the Balkans facing Putin’s ally Aleksandar Vučić and his powerful Serbian army,” the publication states. Naturally, the consequence will be an increase in security risks, both alike the events in Banjska and on a larger scale.
In addition, the withdrawal of American troops from the Western Balkans will pave the way for Russia to return to the region – in the very literal sense. This is not just about “strengthening influence” or “intensifying the use of soft power”, but also about the physical increase in Russian structures, projects and initiatives across the Western Balkans. It should be noted that this process has already begun. For example, the Russian-Serbian humanitarian center in Niš is already being expanded.
The construction of a new training ground for civil defense experts within this facility was announced by Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov at a joint press conference with his Serbian counterpart Marko Djuric, who was visiting Moscow. Western intelligence agencies have been pointing out for years that the facility is a well-disguised Russian military base, but now it seems no one cares.
The developments in Niš is just one example of the expanding Russian activity in the region. Further, thanks to the new geopolitical reality, there will be even more such examples. At the moment, of course, no one expects Russian paratroopers sporting blue helmets to immediately be spotted in Pristina. However, the events of recent weeks urge us not to rule out any developments in Europe in general and in the Western Balkans in particular.
