The Anatomy of Aleksandar Vučić’s Rule – Balsa Bozovic

Introduction

In 2026, the political system in Serbia under the leadership of Aleksandar Vučić exists as an advanced form of a hybrid autocracy and a radically captured state that is inexorably sliding into tyranny. In critical reviews, this system is often inaccurately referred to as a “mafia regime.” However, there is a fundamental difference here: a classic mafia system lacks an ideology, whereas Vučić’s regime is deeply and fervently ideological. While mafia systems operate according to certain internal codes, Vučić’s regime is entirely unbounded by any rules that would constrain its aggression and destructive nature.

It is a deeply anti-civilizational ideological project that systematically isolates Serbia from the rest of the democratic world, permanently excommunicating it from European integration and regional cooperation. His rule is most accurately defined by the term “Šešeljism”— named after Aleksandar Vučić’s political father and convicted war criminal, Vojislav Šešelj. Therefore, a far more precise name for this apparatus is a criminal-radical cartel, whose ideological and operational framework is represented by Vojislav Šešelj’s concept of Greater Serbian nationalism.

In this system, there are no red lines, nor is there a moral bottom it will not sink below. The persecution of dissidents is carried out completely openly, accompanied by the horrific dehumanization and criminalization of opponents through the levers of the public broadcaster and regime-aligned tabloids. Targets are carefully selected: first, they are isolated through constant negative campaigns, then systematically dehumanized, until finally, the public is directly incited toward their moral, political, and even physical elimination. In this process, not even the children or families of those who refuse to bend the knee are spared.

The regime perfidiously assists in the “grinding down” of its critics, while hypocritically distancing itself from the fatal consequences of such persecution before the international and domestic public. One of the most striking examples of this monstrous matrix is the political assassination of Oliver Ivanović, the leader of Kosovo Serbs and an open political opponent of Aleksandar Vučić’s project of a unified Serbian list in Kosovo. The true background of this crime, as well as many other political liquidations and persecutions, will remain hidden within the structures of the captured state apparatus until the inevitable fall of this regime from power.

Today, Serbia’s state institutions are “clinically dead” and reduced to mere enforcement squads for the protection of Vučić’s limitless power and the dirty capital generated by this criminal-radical cartel. Serbia is enduring a profound, historical agony.

Foreign policy: The Collapse of the “Four Pillars” of Foreign Policy

Vučić’s decade-long farce of “military neutrality” and geopolitical balancing between the four pillars of foreign policy (Brussels, Washington, Moscow, and Beijing) has suffered a complete collapse. Of those four chairs, Belgrade is ultimately left with only one—and it is the one that is relentlessly suffocating it.

Russia – The Breakdown of Relations and Geopolitical Marginalization Despite decades of swearing loyalty to Vladimir Putin, relations with Moscow have been severely and permanently damaged by the secret export of weaponry to Ukraine. This move was not an expression of pro-European support for Kyiv—as Vučić remains the only leader in Europe who has yet to impose sanctions on Russia—but rather an extorted, pragmatic agreement with the US administration that Vučić can no longer simply back out of.

The Kremlin’s retaliatory reaction is currently most evident in the deep crisis surrounding the Petroleum Industry of Serbia (NIS). In order to avoid looming US sanctions, Vučić, in collusion with his regional partner Viktor Orbán, attempted to ostensibly replace the Russian majority stake in NIS with Hungary’s MOL. However, Moscow saw right through this maneuver. The Russians are now completely ignoring Belgrade, refusing direct negotiations with Serbia regarding the fate of this energy giant, and discussing everything exclusively and directly with Budapest, treating Vučić as an expendable and irrelevant pawn.

The EU – Total Blockade of Integration and a Historic Drop in Support Relations with Brussels are in an unstoppable free-fall. Despite the persistent blind eye and leniency from Ursula von der Leyen and the European People’s Party (EPP), which continues to provide Vučić with political cover in European bodies, Serbia’s European integration is essentially dead.

Vučić’s toxic, multi-year media campaign has completely devastated pro-European sentiment, causing citizens’ support for Serbia’s EU membership to plummet to a historic low of under 32%. Serbia has formally given up on Europe. The integration process is completely halted, and as many as eight EU member states openly and resolutely oppose the opening of Cluster 3, leaving Serbia securely on the periphery of modern Europe.

Washington – A Corruption Debacle and the Closed Doors of the White House Vučić’s desperate attempt to buy the lasting favor of Washington by directly corrupting Donald Trump’s family ended in a complete fiasco. Giving away valuable state-owned land and the historic complex of the former General Staff headquarters in downtown Belgrade to Trump’s son-in-law turned into a first-rate international scandal.

The anti-corruption backlash from Serbian citizens resonated in influential American and global media, completely exposing the profiteering nature of this deal. Due to such transparent maneuvers, as well as his parallel, deep ties with China, Vučić has lost all credibility with key figures in the US president’s inner circle. All his infamous attempts to get closer to the White House through photo-ops or lobbying have yielded no results. Despite millions of euros of state money pouring into Washington lobbying firms and the desperate offering of his services, Vučić remains completely ignored in Washington.

China – The Economic Noose and the “Vendor Lock-in” Trap Beijing remains the only address to which Vučić has entirely surrendered, consciously transforming Serbia into a Chinese strategic enclave in the heart of Europe. However, within this “steely friendship” lies a harsh truth: even China is beginning to slow down its investments. During 2025, Chinese foreign direct investment (FDI) suffered a sharp decline, plummeting from a stable figure of over a billion annually to a mere 50 million euros per year.

Yet, these low investments do not indicate China’s withdrawal from Serbia, but rather the successfully executed process of economic and security “vendor lock-in.” Simply put, the phase of capital expansion is over; Chinese capital is now deeply rooted in the mining and heavy industry sectors (Zijin, Linglong), which have become immovable pillars of Serbia’s GDP. Serbia is economically trapped, reduced to a gray zone for Chinese nearshoring and the bypassing of EU tariffs. Simultaneously, through the desire to procure defensive military systems (FK-3 and HQ-9 air defense systems) and the introduction of total biometric surveillance via the “Smart City” project, Serbia is technologically and securely cut off from NATO standards, permanently tethered to Beijing’s software protocols, encryption, and logistics.

However, the pinnacle of this security dependence and the demonstration of a regional threat is the introduction of the CM-400 air-to-surface supersonic ballistic missiles. These offensive missiles, the likes of which are rarely possessed by anyone in Europe, are cynically and ominously dubbed “Zagrepčanke” in regime tabloids—directly alluding to their range and potential target, the capital of Croatia. With this move, introducing offensive supersonic weaponry into its arsenal for the first time, Vučić’s regime completely tramples and demolishes its own state concept and defense strategy, which for decades strictly mandated the procurement of exclusively defensive weapons.

This threat takes on an additional, terrifying dimension as Serbia now harbors a clear ambition and is openly considering the acquisition of Chinese fighter jets onto which these missiles would be integrated. The key reason lies in the fact that the operational lifespan of Serbia’s MiG-29 aircraft expires in the next few years. As a result, military analysts and international institutes unequivocally consider the purchase of additional quantities of CM-400 missiles in July 2026 to be a direct prelude to the imminent acquisition of Chinese combat aircraft and, ultimately, a complete binding to Beijing’s military echelon.

Regional policy: Destabilization and the “Serbian World” Project

Vučić’s regime functions as the main generator of permanent crises in the Western Balkans, utilizing hybrid warfare methods to systematically limit the sovereignty of neighboring states and exploit them as cheap diplomatic currency for its own bargaining. The “Serbian World” doctrine primarily represents a direct operational action plan for the ideological concept of creating a Greater Serbia, and only secondarily a pragmatic tool for the regime’s bare political survival and the camouflage of its internal collapse. Today, this aggressive matrix is most evident in relation to Montenegro—official Belgrade has never politically accepted the restoration of Montenegrin independence in 2006, treating this state exclusively as a “renegade territory” that must be absorbed back into its own orbit at any cost.

The most striking example of this undisguised state terror is the sabotage carried out at the Tivat airport on the eve of a crucial European summit, when Serbia’s state structures organized the infamous charter flight filled with individuals with severe criminal records. Under direct orders and with the logistical support of Belgrade, special military and operational equipment was smuggled onto Montenegrin soil with the aim of compromising Podgorica and sabotaging its European path.

Belgrade’s regional hegemony experienced its bloodiest escalation in Kosovo, through the terrorist act in the village of Banjska led by Milan Radoičić, an official of the Serbian List who operates under the absolute patronage of Aleksandar Vučić. Although Kosovo’s institutions are pursuing him for terrorism, Belgrade openly protects him within Serbia’s borders and uses him as an instrument of constant threat, proving that this criminal-radical cartel is ready at any moment to cross the line of political action and slide into armed violence.

The same destructive matrix is applied in Bosnia and Herzegovina, where Vučić, through the satellite regime in the Republika Srpska, permanently blocks the functionality of the state and manipulates the fear of secession of the minority entity under Belgrade’s control. His strategy is completely transparent: he single-handedly sets fires across the region so that he can subsequently position himself before the West as the only indispensable “firefighter” and guarantor of peace, unscrupulously trading the security of his neighbors to buy absolution from the international community for the naked terror and his continued grip on power in Serbia itself.

Internal repression

Within Serbia, the regime has stripped away all its masks and transitioned into a phase of open terror. This is a system founded exclusively on brutal force, relentless persecution, and the systemic suppression of all critical thought, one that does not shrink from utilizing the darkest methods of dealing with its own citizens.

To protect his criminal-radical cartel, Aleksandar Vučić has seized absolute control over the judiciary, deliberately dismantling the Prosecutor’s Office for Organized Crime through the so-called Mrdić laws. The Higher Public Prosecutor’s Office (VJT), led by Vučić’s appointee Nenad Stefanović, has been reduced to a mere regime inquisition that persecutes political dissidents and conducts witch hunts at the partisan behest of the ruling party.

The climax of this institutional repression occurred on March 15, 2025, when sonic weaponry was deployed against its own citizens and students during mass protests. After the regime initially lied about possessing such equipment at all, sound cannons were unequivocally spotted on the streets. Instead of sanctioning the police apparatus, the VJT launched a horrifying persecution of citizens, opposition figures, and analysts—such as Aleksandar Radić and Zdravko Ponoš—who testified to the use of these weapons, absurdly charging them with “simulating a cannon” and “overthrowing the constitutional order.” As the pinnacle of anti-Western cynicism and the ultimate trampling of state sovereignty, the government commissioned and adopted a report from the Russian FSB as official “evidence” in these proceedings, denying the use of sound cannons and sonic weaponry.

The poisoned atmosphere and ceaseless media persecutions in Vučić’s Serbia are now directly resulting in physical violence on the streets. Students are routinely beaten at protests, and regime hooligans no longer shrink even from running over demonstrators with cars during street traffic blockades. Every voice of reason in society is under severe attack—from the smashing of the car belonging to the family of Professor Dinko Gruhonjić, physical assaults on journalist Vuk Cvijić, and threats against Danica Vučenić, all the way to the issuing of an official ban on entering Serbia for Montenegrin journalist Petar Komnenić under the nebulous, fabricated charge of “hybrid warfare.”

That this system stops at nothing and is prepared even for the physical liquidation of its greatest national legends if they publicly oppose it, is unequivocally proven by the threats and mentions of assassinating the celebrated footballer Nemanja Vidić in the “Sky” app communications among Vučić’s closest associates. His public opposition to the criminalization of Serbian football made him a direct target for regime executioners, whereby Vučić practically demonstrated that within the ideology of “Šešeljism,” all boundaries have long been crossed, and absolutely no one who refuses to bend the knee is safe.

Conclusion: Three Options for Resolving the Crisis and the EU’s Red Line

Faced with the total breakdown of the system, institutional entropy, and the unyielding pressure of a mass student movement breathing down his neck, Aleksandar Vučić no longer has the option of a peaceful transition. For the regime’s top echelon, stepping down from power no longer means just a political end, but primarily the potential loss of freedom, facing justice, and prosecution for high-level corruption and organized crime.

In a desperate bid to ensure survival and shift all power from the office of the presidency to the Government of Serbia—which he plans to head following his announced resignation—he has three tactical options at his disposal:

• Institutional Castling (Prime Minister without Elections): Vučić resigns, and an absolutely subservient ruling majority in parliament immediately grants him the mandate to form a new Government. Through this maneuver, he assumes executive power and completely avoids facing the electorate until the regular election cycle in December 2027.
• Snap Parliamentary Elections: Calling snap elections immediately after his resignation, aimed at catching the opposition and the independent student movement organizationally unprepared. Through an exceptionally brief campaign, coupled with inevitable and massive electoral fraud, he seeks to secure a new mandate before the accumulated public rage can be further channeled and mobilized. In this scenario, the current Speaker of Parliament—Vučić’s puppet, Ana Brnabić—would assume the role of acting President of Serbia and grant him the mandate to form the government.
• Total Electoral Mobilization (Combined Elections): Although the regular presidential elections are scheduled for spring 2027 and parliamentary elections not until December 2027, Vučić calls them prematurely on the same day. Staking everything on a single throw, as the titular head of all electoral lists, Vučić would plunge the state into a condition of absolute paranoia and a referendum-like “defense of the constitutional order against internal enemies” in an attempt to cling to power.

This is precisely where an absolute and insurmountable red line is drawn for the European Union. Brussels can no longer allow an outdated policy of appeasement to legitimize Vučić’s brutal crushing of the democratic will of the citizens just to remain in power, as this would bring Serbia to the brink of chaos and violence. The EU is becoming increasingly aware of its obligation to urgently take steps that will demonstrate its active role in its own backyard and ensure a transition of power that does not result in bloodshed and unrest on the streets of Serbian cities.

Concrete proposals for active participation in defusing tensions and preventing a dictatorship are being placed before Brussels with increasing clarity:

• Deploying a permanent mission with a full mandate to work directly and immediately on improving and monitoring the electoral process and election day itself, which analysts predict will be the most irregular in Serbia’s history due to the desperate state of Vučić’s approval ratings.
• Formally adopting the option of non-recognition of election results should massive and systemic electoral fraud occur, which the radical apparatus is already extensively preparing on the ground.
• Establishing an operational crisis-management framework in anticipation of the virtually certain mass unrest following the elections, thereby clearly defining the EU’s role in mediating between the falling hybrid, radical regime and the new, democratic civic majority.

Tolerating any further maneuvers by Vučić would signify Europe’s total capitulation to a violent criminal-radical regime. The EU knows that this would amount to complicity in the trampling of fundamental human rights and the rewarding of a system that kills, beats, and persecutes dissidents not only within Serbia but across the entire Western Balkans.

Serbia, as the largest country in the region, possesses the democratic capacity to finally rid itself of this hybrid regime. The responsibility of the European Union is to make it impossible for a minority radical regime to continue ruling over the majority solely through the use of naked force and fear. Dismantling this anti-civilizational, criminal-radical regime will be the greatest historical test for Serbian society itself, as well as a fundamental test of credibility for the entire European Union.

The articles published in the “Opinions” column reflect the personal opinion of the author and may not coincide with the position of the Center