Images of the burial of former commander of the Army of Republika Srpska Ratko Mladić in Belgrade with full military honours and with the participation of Serbian ministers shocked Europe and sparked a debate about Serbia’s European future.
Criminal vs. Defender
European Council President António Costa and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, in identical statements published on X, said that images from the ceremony honouring Mladić in a country that is a candidate for EU membership were “shocking.” “Elements of official support and the presence of some senior Serbian officials at the funeral are deeply regrettable” and “demonstrate a failure to confront a dark chapter in Europe’s recent history and contradict the values underpinning Serbia’s path towards the European Union,” Costa and von der Leyen stated.
The statements by the EU leaders are understandable and predictable. But in fact, the honouring of Ratko Mladić is not an unexpected sensation, but an expected manifestation of the Serbian authorities’ position on the interpretation of the events of the war in Yugoslavia and the role of particular individuals in the events of that time.
Official Belgrade has never concealed, and has even emphasised, that it does not recognise the Srebrenica genocide. Accordingly, the Hague Tribunal’s verdict against the former commander of the Bosnian Serbs is perceived by the Serbian authorities as unjust, and even illegitimate, while Mladić himself is viewed not as a criminal but as a defender of the Serbian people.
Not Outcasts
Ratko Mladić is not an exception. Within the ideology currently dominant in Belgrade, other Serbian political figures and military commanders convicted by the Hague Tribunal are likewise not regarded as criminals. In previous years, when Serbian military officers or politicians convicted in The Hague returned from prison, they did not become outcasts or forgotten retirees, but active participants in political life or respected mentors.
General Vladimir Lazarević, who spent ten years behind bars under a Hague Tribunal sentence for war crimes committed during the conflict in Kosovo, was welcomed as a hero after returning from prison in 2015. After arriving back in his homeland, the former commander of the Priština Corps of the Yugoslav Army began teaching at the Serbian Military Academy. His first lecture, as BIRN reported, was devoted to the “heroism and humanity” of Serbian soldiers during “counter-terrorist operations” in Kosovo in 1998–1999.
At the time, an EU spokesperson said regarding Lazarević’s teaching activities that the appointment of “a convicted war criminal to the Serbian Military Academy” directly contradicted the principles Serbia was required to uphold as a candidate for EU membership. Nevertheless, the EU drew no systematic conclusions from this.
Three years ago, Nebojša Pavković, the former commander of the Third Army of the Yugoslav Armed Forces, who was sentenced by the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia to 22 years in prison for war crimes and crimes against humanity committed during the war in Kosovo, spoke online directly from prison at an open lesson at a school in Novi Sad. His presentation was devoted to one of the battles of the Kosovo war. The city’s mayor also spoke at the event.
Vojislav Šešelj, leader of the Serbian Radical Party, who was found guilty by the Hague Tribunal of crimes against humanity — incitement to the ethnic cleansing of Croats in Vojvodina — remains an active participant in political life and in discussions on pro-government television channels.
A Thick Red Line
Given Belgrade’s policies in recent years, Mladić’s burial with military honours and the funeral ceremony attended by government officials can be regarded as a logical continuation of the previous course. But, by all appearances, this time Belgrade crossed a red line in its relations with Brussels — because of the scale and horrific nature of the crimes for which the former commander of the Army of Republika Srpska was convicted, and because of the global resonance caused by the glorification of a criminal under whose command the largest genocide in Europe since the Second World War was committed.
The European Union has not yet officially announced how the honouring of Mladić will affect Serbia’s application for membership. Asked by journalists about possible consequences, von der Leyen’s spokesperson replied that the EU was still “examining the matter.” But speaking on condition of anonymity, an EU diplomat told Euronews: “It is clear to everyone that after this vile glorification of Mladić, the opening of Cluster 3 is completely out of the question for now.”
However, the process of opening negotiating chapters has in fact been “on pause” since the beginning of 2022. The main reasons cited are the erosion of democracy in Serbia and Belgrade’s refusal to align its foreign policy with that of the EU, above all its unwillingness to impose sanctions on Russia over its aggression against Ukraine. But after the honouring of Ratko Mladić at an almost state level, not only the opening of clusters but Serbia’s accession to the EU itself could, in principle, come to a halt. At least, such proposals are already being voiced.
A group of members of the European Parliament from four major political groups, at the initiative of Czech representative Ondřej Kolář (EPP), has already sent Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos a letter proposing that Serbia’s European integration process be suspended. “We ask the European Commission to consider suspending or freezing Serbia’s accession process until the Serbian authorities unequivocally reject the glorification and public commemoration of individuals convicted of war crimes and genocide,” reads the letter, signed by twenty-three members of the European People’s Party (EPP), the Socialists and Democrats (S&D), the Liberals (Renew) and the Greens. “A country seeking membership in the European Union cannot glorify such a person (Ratko Mladić) during his lifetime or after his death, since this is incompatible not only with the fundamental values on which the European Union is founded, but also with basic human morality,” the signatories of the letter state.
A Chance for a “Reset”
A “suspension” or “freezing” of European integration gives Serbia a chance for a political “reset” and a resumption of its movement towards the EU. In theory, such an opportunity will arise in Serbia very soon: early parliamentary elections will be held in the country on 25 October, followed, as expected, by presidential elections. However, by all indications, fundamental changes in the government and state policy should not be expected. Aleksandar Vučić and his Serbian Progressive Party are currently managing to maintain their leading positions on Serbia’s political scene. The level of support for genuinely pro-European democratic forces, for whom Ratko Mladić is not a hero but a criminal, is insufficient for them to come to power.
The election results are expected to bring only some reshuffling: Vučić will take the post of prime minister, while one of his associates will become president. But this will not substantially change Serbia’s political landscape, or the substance and direction of the country’s domestic and foreign policy.
If this forecast proves correct, it will mean not only the stagnation of Serbia’s European integration. It will mean Belgrade’s continued promotion of Greater Serbian ideology, the emergence of an increasing number of ominous shadows of the dark past, and the development of the situation in the region according to a highly dangerous scenario.
CWBS Analytical Group
